Sunday, April 30, 2006

James J. Cramer "Confessions of a Street Addict" book review

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I'm reading his book "Confessions of a street addict" and I'm really enjoying it so far. I always wondered how hedge funds operated, and this gave me a better clue to how the "smart money" makes there moves.
Once I'm done reading this book, I think I'll give it a complete review. Busy comes to mind when I read what the job was like for Cramer running the hedge fund with his wife Karen, Jeff, and staff, with making calls to CEO's, other firms, analysts, brokers, and spending a ton in commission to keep good contacts for what the brokers were thinking of promoting. Once Karen left the fund, things didn't run as smoothly, because her trading skills really made the Fund the best it could be. Also, Cramer is truely addicted to the market, with the market always on his mind, even when his wife is giving birth and when his mother is dying.

Saturday, April 29, 2006

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN OIL AND AIRLINES

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Potential Long Swings and other setups coming

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Metal stocks kick ass right now, but will the trend change?

Volatile Metal stocks!

Silver pairs (I like TIE)

Friday, April 28, 2006

1month chart on Oil sector

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I've been daytrading OIH and it seems like a very good vehicle to drive and pair with the major index and crude oil and XOM.

Trade setups based on type of trading day

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You may want to switch styles of trading based on what type of trading day your going into. If it's friday, you can expect low volume, and you may have a better chance at trading short term trends on the 5min chart instead of taking scalping on 1 min charts.
Also, be aware of big pending news that could decrease volatility and volume like economic numbers and FOC interest rate announcements. Also be aware of big cap earnings annoucements like MSFT had today, losing 11%, down to $24.15, and trading over 500mil shares for the day with over 100mil during the premarket.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Trade setups with high probabilities

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Every trade should have a setup for entry. What's the premise for entrance",,,just because the chart looks good? I don't think so! You have to be aware of a number of factor before pulling the trigger. I'm putting together trade setups which the have a high probability of winning on a specific time frame for an expected amount of profit using indicators like MA's, stochastics, CCI, momentum, Elliot wave, MACD, time and sales, volume, time of the day, pairing off other equities, indices, and futures, the tick/trin/put:call ratio, and also pending news for that equity or sector it lies in and the underlying trend and major news for the day.

Good equities to trade

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Sunday, April 16, 2006

Check out the new Crude Oil ETF

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It began trading April 10, 2006.
The United States Oil Fund; USO, whose units trade on the American Stock Exchange, tracks the price of U.S. benchmark crude oil. The fund invests its assets in futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil and other petroleum-based fuels traded on regulated futures exchanges as well as in forward contracts for oil and other oil interests.

Friday, April 14, 2006

Stockta.com and Barcharts.com

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DJI



GOOG



AAPL




BARCHART.COM









Small cap stocks tend to double

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It's a common phenomenon to see small caps double in a short period of say less than 1 month. Check out OTD and COR during March/April 2006, both doubled, and went further. Watch the 52 week high breakout on these small floaters.



CVC is next dividend play April 18 D-Day, it's extra special though

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Because of the magnitude(greater then 25% of stock value) you have to hold the stock extra long until after you recieve the dividend. Current value is 27.40,,I think I might buy monday and hold to April 18th or the maybe go for the dividend since it isn't taxed. Reading further, this stock may go private? hmmm,,,more research is needed

The dividend play worked beautifully

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Gap opened below 27 and the next day it came close to 29,,,,Dam I'm good.


free stock charts from ADVFN.COM

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

GAP dividend play for April 12 2006

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GAP closed today at 34.70(after hours 34.75) and has ex-dividend day tommorow with a 7.25 dividend, so the stock should open near 27.45. The strategy is to buy below 27.00 or short above 28.00.

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Dividend Plays

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Check out the website smartdividend, they give free updates to all the potentially good trades from dividend paying stocks.

Saturday, April 08, 2006

GOALS APRIL 8 2006

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I love pondering new goals to be met.

Goal 1- Get to 100k in IB simulator day trading GOOG(or other volatile stocks like AAPL).Figure out best strategies and avg P/L. Avg. P/L most be $200/day in order to coninue to Goal 2.
Question- What is Avg P/L since you've started Goal #1, and how many days has it been?
Question- Do you feel confident that you can trade GOOG live?
Question- What was your biggest losing trade in GOOG during this time and why?
Question- What was your biggest gainer in GOOG during this time and why?
Question- What trade setups do you like to trade on GOOG?
Question- What was your avg. holding period for a trade?
Question- What was your avg. profit/loss per trade?
Question- How many trades a day on avg. did you enter?
Question- What time of the day were you must profitable/least profitable?
Question- How many hours a day on avg. did you trade?
Question- What was the avg commission per day, month, year, and as a percentage of net profit/loss?
Question- What do you dislike about trading GOOG that you wish could be changed?
Question- What do you like about GOOG that makes it the best stock to trade?
Question- What would you trade if there was no GOOG or the stock split 3:1?
Question- What have you learned since trading GOOG?
Question- What is the most important signal for entering a trade and exiting?
Question- How do you determine where to place your stops?
Question- What is the best number of shares to trade GOOG on your trade setups?
Question- What trade setups do you use and why?
Question- What is the best time period to trade GOOG?
Question- What research do you do outside of live trading?
Question- What can help you trade better?
Question- What/who has helped you the most in your trading?
Question- What is effecting your trading positively/negatively?
Question- Where do you see yourself 1 year from now, 5 years?
Question- If your trading was compared to an hourly payed job, how much on avg. would you be getting paid per hour, 40hr, 1month, 1 year?
Question- What is it about trading that you like and dislike?
Question- How many hours a day on avg. do you spend researching the stock market? per week?
Question- If you had 1 million dollars, what would you do with it?
Question- What do you like about your life right now?


Goal 2- If you met Goal 1 and are continueing, it is time to fund your account with 26k. 25k is minimum, so the 1k extra is for leway.

Goal 3- The first 5k made stays in the account for trading GOOG. The next 5k can be used for swing trading index options, biotechs, and news/earnings/dividend plays.

Goal 4- Start your business. (Dividend tracker- a sight that gives you ideas to trade stocks that have dividends, blogger website making money of ads)

Thursday, April 06, 2006

GOOG Live Video training

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Click here to watch 'GOOG-tape-reading-1a'

This is just a test video I made, you'll notice the ask price is stuck because that's what happens sometimes on the IB simulator, which I was recording off of.

GOOG -TRADING SETUPS

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I like to trade box breakouts, no matter what the direction, but obviously its preferable to go with the trend. The trade is put on as soon as I see a candle breakout. To get in the trade I look at the bid and ask and time and sales to find the best entry in the next 10 seconds after the candle breakout. I'll buy or sell 100 or 200 shares with a limit order using hot keys, buying at the ask or selling at the bid. I'll initially put in a stop loss order 30 cents away. As soon as I go in the black, I'll re-adjust the stop loss to 3 cents away from the bid or ask, depending what way I'm trading. If I shorted at the bid at 400.50 while the last price was 400.55, I would have a stop loss order 30 cents away from my entry, or 30 cents from the bid at 400.80. As soon as the trade goes into the black I'll hit a hot key to readjust my stop loss. Here is an example chart.

On this trade I sent an order to short at 11:18:08(yellow arrow) and was filled at 11:18:16(green arrow). Quickly, GOOG dropped and I readjusted my stop using a hot key that sent an order for a buy stop that was 3 cents away from the last bid. I continued re-adjusting the stop 2 more times(making sure I canceled the old cover buys quickly so I wouldn't be stuck in a position if GOOG quickly reversed). My last buy cover was at the bottom green arrow at 11:18:11, with a buy cover on the current bid at 412.67 (My bid cover was 3 cents away from the current bid; moreover, my buy cover on the bid was 412.70, this is so that I wouldn't be taken out of the position, but giving it 3 cents of leway to decide what way it will go). The red arrow shows where my buy cover on the bid was taken out at 11:19:19 and my trade came to a close with a 34 cent profit, or $70 in roughly 1 minute.

Note- 200 shares were traded, if you were trading with 100 shares your fills may have been quicker and better, but you would have only $35 profit. I like 200 shares on GOOG because with the minimum 25k on a 4-1 margin it's possible to trade up to 100k worth of stock, great for big position sizing on volatile stocks like GOOG, also with my broker 100-200 shares is the same commission, $1, charging 0.005 cents per share. Low commissions is just another reason why high priced volatile stocks are great to trade.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Swing trading Company News

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Here's an example to swing, even if you miss the initial move. Suppose company X has good or bad earnings announcement. The following days after the initial news day will set a trend for the next few days most likely, so you can swing trade it for a nice profit. Also look for dead cat bounces. Check out the drop off of earnings for BBBY in December,
free stock charts from ADVFN.COM



Check out what happened to STEM when the said they were selling 11.75 mil shares of stock.
free stock charts from ADVFN.COM

Monday, April 03, 2006

Day trading High volume, tight spread stocks

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Here's the list of high volume stocks with tight bid/ask spreads:

GOOG =0.06-0.12 (limit target first hour of trading 0.30-0.70 with 0.80 stop, 0.08-0.15 with 0.20-0.80 stop for 1min scalps, during afternoon target 0.10-0.20, 0.50 for breakouts, use trailing stops on news reactions and major trends)

AAPL =0.01 (limit target for 1st hr 0.05-0.30 with 0.08 stop, 0.03 with 0.08 stop for 1 min scalps)

YHOO =0.01 (limit target 0.04-0.06 with 0.06 stop for 1 min scalps, 0.10 for strong trends)

NVAX =0.01 (limit target 0.02-0.06 with 0.12 stop for trade breakouts only, needs more volume and is too sporadic, highly reactive to news, 2 minute variance of 0.06)

HANS =0.20 (limit target 0.10-0.20 with 0.80 stop, 0.80 target for 3 min trends, needs more volume and tighter spreads for better trading)

ISRG =0.08 (limit target 0.08-0.16 with 0.50 stop, 0.30-0.50 for small 3min trends, trade intraday breakouts with trailing stops)

GNBT =0.02 (limit target 0.02-0.06 with 0.06 stop, lock in trailing stops for intraday breakouts and ride it 0.10-0.20)

FNSR =0.01 (limit target 0.02-0.04 with 0.04 stop)

BRCM =0.01 (limit target 0.10-0.20 with 0.20 stop)

ADBE (similiar to YHOO)

VPHM (similiar to NVAX)

IIP (trade breakouts 0.02 target)

ATML (trade the trend 0.04 target, long holding time)

NBR (similiar to AAPL)

KLAC (similiar to NTRI)

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