Sunday, March 11, 2007

Market outlook for week of March 12-16 is,,,,,BULLISH!


I don't normally make predictions, but since everyone is doing it....and if I get this one right I might look good for calling it, so what the hey. All of the markets around the world tanked 2 weeks ago, and now we have the Shanghai index almost back to its 52 week high on this sunday night, and next week is end of the quarter for the big funds. The big economic #'s come out thursday and friday with nothing worth noting on monday. I think most retail investors are looking short because the chart setup looks so dandy as a bear flag, however, I'm looking at the volume profile and see that we are inches away from the lower end of the big selloff created on Feb 27. When looking at the weekly volume profile I see a volume gap, which, if you were to look at it, you would say we need to go up because there is weak shorts in this area that should be taken out. Also, the last week of the quarter can be volatile, and I've seen in the past that the bias is bullish because the large majority of long funds well be doing there usual window dressing. On the last friday of the quarter during the final 2 hours I see selling from funds closing out positions for end of the quarter statements. The "smart" call option sellers from Feb 27's selloff should have closed out all of there positions last week because most calls were so close to expiring worthless that it wouldn't be worth the risk of keeping the options open until expiration. We have a lot of money being thrown into QID, but what if the unthinkable happens and that volume gap in the stock market is filled? That quick money thrown into QID will be hurting, and shorts will be covering, and the market will rally, and retail investors will just shake their heads and say "when will it ever stop going up!".

In the eyes of Mr.Market, there are just to many VIRGINS (POC's) up there! (that's a market profile joke, yeah, I know I'm COOL!)




So there you have it, that's my reasoning for the bullish bias, however, if I'm wrong it won't matter for me, because I only trade intraday based on my signals given by my indicators. HAHA!! Good luck Swing traders!

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