Friday, May 18, 2007

May 18 update $844




I was getting ready to leave for work and I came to my computer and saw that ER2 had broken out and was at 823, and that YM had bearish divergence compared to ER2 (the reverse of what we've been seeing lately), so I got a quick long scalp on ER2, and a short scalp on YM.

P/L= $844

OK, now I'm officially done.

Market Observations-
Too bad I missed ER2's afternoon pop, no one was expecting it I bet, but with expiration today, the divergences aren't working between YM/ER2, and we saw a reverse of what we have been seeing between this pair for the last month.

Have a good weekend ya'll

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

What kind of risk are you taking on your trades? Whats your win% and win loss ratios?

High Probability Trader on 3:11 AM said...

I've had 1 losing day in the last 2 months, and 3-4 losing days total this year so far. That is as far as I know what my win/loss ratio is. If it's a losing trade I put on I rarely add size to it unless it's within a logical range for a scalp during a range bound market. The risk I take on trades depends on the volatility of the markets and if the market is range bound or trending. The risk per trade could be a 1 lot scalp or a short term 10 lot position that I've scaled into, it all depends on market conditions. Position sizing is one of the biggest factors in achieving successful trading results.

F. on 1:06 PM said...

How do you decide what size trades consititute "large traders" in the different indexes and contracts that you monitor? For example, do you filter for only trades of size that are 2 standard deviations away from the mean trade size?

Anonymous said...

But if a market is trending, who says it will continue trending? Same for a range bound market.
The indexes especially have a slight negative serial correlation.
Every market test I run shows that there is no persistence in the market beyond the usual upward slight %. So a down day has a very slight bias to go up the next and vice versa for up days. A narrow trendless day has a slight bias towards trending the next day. This is the same on almost every time frame.
Yet you only add to winners and if the market is trending you get in. If it is range bound you fade. It goes against all the facts I have on the table yet you have only lost 1 day in the last 2 months!! These reasons cannot be the reasons you are making money. Is it possible you are making money due to something else? Your consistency is amazing i must say.

High Probability Trader on 9:03 PM said...

Look at the execution logs of my trading from the last couple weeks/months. You can decide for yourself what it is that I'm doing. When I see a strong breakout I can get in with 5 contracts really quickly and scalp 5-10 ticks and be out with 250-500 bucks in 1-3minutes. It's not like I'm in a position for 30min at a time. Most trades are held 1-6min, unless there is a lack of volatility and I'm holding for a breakout.

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