Wednesday, May 02, 2007

May 2 Trade summary $528




I'm really mad at myself. I hesitated and missed the big move, partly due to my computer acting real slow this morning. I ended up shorting the top with size and that's how I made my money today. Absolutely pathetic. I couldn't sleep last night, stayed up until 2am with a headache that is still bothering me. I watched a recording last night that showed the breakout setups just like we had today. My camtasia recorder is slowing down my Time and sales windows for ER2 and SPY.

P/L= $528 (15 RT on ER2)

Accumulated ticks & Time (First entry minus first exit in order of trade executions)
ER2= 58 ticks (-0.1 5min, 0.4 3min, -0.8 40min, -0.1 40min, 0.5 29min, 0.7 29min, 0.6 44min, 1.1 45min, 1.1 38min, 0.7 38min, 0.7 21min, -0.2 20min, 0.0 7min, 0.4 5min, 0.8 29min= 58 ticks)

I'm going to the gym before I go to work to take some aggression out on how Crappy I traded today. I will try to do my trade analysis later, I'm just mad right now that I hesistated on the breakout. At least I recorded todays recording and I will be able to go back and watch it.
I had a feeling today was going to go straight up, due to the daily charts, and NYSE A/D opened VERY HIGH. There are no excuses for my hesitation today. I need to work on reviewing my setups more and enter with small size and PRESS the trade when I have confirmed the breakout.

5 comments:

OBAT on 1:19 PM said...

I feel the same way too. A lot of big movers today but I just got some small scalps.

tmk500 said...

Spoos were trading below fair value, volume was dropping way off due to pending Factory Order announcement, TICK was at middle of LRegression, we were just above yesterday's highs with single prints above us on profile. So, if you had "lost" by chasing on the factory order econ #, would you be kicking yourself for chasing after the # vs. waiting for the retrace?

Don't be so hard on yourself ... results matter ... you produced results and preserved your capital to execute on a statistically likely opportunity later in the day.

I saw it coming as well, but no way I would chase on Factory Orders. The obligatory pullback on light "fast attack" volume and a 2STDev TICK penetration didn't present itself and the "sucking" sound of the Single Print Vacuum was a Vortex that even Dorthy couldn't escape: It happens.

You made money on a day when most "Crossing Squiggly Line" Indicator traders ate the bar ... take solace that you're not part of that crowd and have evolved.

High Probability Trader on 10:46 PM said...

tmk500,
That's the thing, I was waiting on a better setup after the 7am #. I had a gut feeling, but wanted technical analysis confirmation. I find the first 30min of trading is dificult to find setups, but there is a very wide range during this time period. I'm starting to look at the value of NYSE A/D during the open, and the volume in ES to guage this time period. There could be 30min of trading where the market goes one direction, but NYSE TICK may not ever give you a good setup, so you find it hard to enter, given that you don't see the setup. BUT THAT's IT. There is no setup, except that you have a wide range bar on NYSE A/D in one direction, and the price is trading above yesterdays POC or below, so you need to enter in the trend and just get a feel for the market. When I'm not in a trade, I feel it is harder to guage the market. I've been contemplating the idea of always having 1 contract in play on YM or ER2 so I can establish this feel for the market. I may just use the simulator for this purpose as I sometimes do. NYSE A/D has been helping me the most. Also, ZN has been helping too. I'm still mad. I don't think there's been one day were I've caught a big move on ER2, let alone a 5pt move. I'm starting to get more experience in these big breakouts though. I think in time I will catch one going my way. Thanks for the comments.

Yaser Anwar on 11:15 PM said...

Isn't it possible to trade during the day? Sucks that you can't participate, as the market has been trending after 10:30ish and before today tends to go down and then mid-day resurges.

Anyhow, as tmk said, at least you made money today, shit happens. Maybe you can find a way to trade at work! ;)

tmk500 said...

If you find yourself in the scenario: "A large move happened and my methodology didn't catch it .. Grrr" ..... then, let it go. You know by now that moves and methodologies are not an "if and only if" conditional. It's not about the opportunity cost lost on the ones you miss, it's about the magnitude of losses on the ones you take ... you're in "the zone" and should save the angst for the times when those YM scalp trades turn into losers that give back the week. ;) --- but, that's just my opinion. ;)

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