Wednesday, June 27, 2007

June 27 Trade Analysis




Here's today's lucky charts!
Thanks for all the comments everyone.
No need for analysis, it's the same BS as usual on my blow up days, average losers and puke the trade when you feel the max pain or the market closes. ER2 had a nice 20pt run up today with a 2pt pullback during some periods during the day. Tommorow is FOMC day, should be boring after todays crazyness. Today we had bonds and equities inverse trading again, I think Paulson made a statement which made the dive in bonds and rally in equities occur. If you learn anything know that the inverse bond/equity relationship occurs leading up to FOMC meetings, something I think I just realized that is important to know and can be made into some sort of strategy.
I'm not sure what I'm doing as far as trading goes, I'm watching ER2 continue to climb right now in the afterhours around 11:45pm EST now at 847, good thing I finally cut that bastard.

Trade analysis-
I've never had a trade that ran for more than 3pts on ER2, I've never caught a trend day. This past month I was on the wrong side of the trend on the 2 largest range/trend days and also inccured my biggest losses ever (-18k and -9.5k), I do good at trading the first 2 hours, the afternoon I tend to lose my money/ make a couple hundred bucks, rarely make a couple grand, and have all of my blow up days by averaging a bad position on trending days in the afternoon.
I wish I had a trade risk manager because my big blow ups may have been able to have been stopped, becuase I'm stubborn and greedy, and I still haven't learned from my mistakes, I make 1 months of profit and through it out the window in a day, 2x this month, 20k out the window, (%*% me. Don't you just love loser traders venting their losses, it's funny. I still don't know how I'm going to avoid another blow up day like today, stops you say?, yeah maybe I should try that, or maybe I should try the not averaging losers thing....

So I'm pretty much back to where I started in May,,,,a month is lost, so close to getting back to breakeven, but all is lost. Will Johnny boy prevail,,,,,,,,,,,tune in next week, or whenever it is I decide to post again.

Anyone want to short the market tommorow with me before FOMC minutes are released? Heck lets bet the whole account, what's left of it,,, on some IWM 81 puts!!!!

6 comments:

Dinosaur Trader on 6:37 AM said...

HPT,

All my big down days come when I add to losing positions.

-DT

Anonymous said...

It seems to me if someone put in random trades with very wide stops and very close targets, their results would be similar to yours. Lots of profitable days with the occasional blow ups. Have you ever really examined your strategy to see if it has positive expectancy?
If you change your money management theme to one where you keep your stops closer all the time, yet you can't make money, it means your entries were no good to begin with.

High Probability Trader on 8:26 AM said...

Hey anonymous,
I don't back test, I trade what I see and screw up when I add to losers, that's how most everyone messes up. I think if I were making a bunch of random trades that I would show a lot of lossing days, don't you? I screwed up yesterday like I've done in the past by not trailing my profit and letting a winner turn into a loser and then letting greed get me by not following my charts, the blowup was do to psychological problems, how I trade based off my charts works, this game is 90% mental if you didn't know already.

Anonymous said...

http://www.turtletrader.com/losers-average-losers.html

Anonymous said...

Why would you make mental mistakes? Why would you trail your stops one time and not another? Is it really greed? I mean, if you have specific rules in place, why would you not just follow them? If you know the odds are in your favor to do a certain thing, why wouldnt you do that thing?
Most people don't because they either have no rules, or they don't believe in the ones they have(and usually quite rightfully). Or their rules are so vague that a signal sometimes could not be a signal and vice versa. Then your really in trouble.
You'd be surprised how often youd make money entering randomly with wide stops and tight profit targets. You could be right over 97% of the time if you wanted. Until the blowup of course.
Doing this for 10 years I realize its not 90% mental at all. It's 100% about finding trades that give you an edge and taking them.

High Probability Trader on 6:35 PM said...

A,
I read your comment at least 3x. I'm not sure why a human would make mental mistakes. Why would a person make mistakes when thousands of dollars are at stake and a descision to lose or make it is based on the click of a mouse in the time frame of a couple of minutes. YM dropped over 100pts in 12 minutes near the close today, and then rallied back 90 pts in 9 minutes, and continued higher into the close to over 100 pts.

I know what my problems are, the problem is sticking to the rules, which wasn't a problem a few months ago until I started trading large size and the psychological problem of taking a loss has caused me to freeze. So in order to get back to good trading, I will have to reduce my size, so I won't be afraid to take losses. Maybe after 10 years of trading I won't have any problems like you and I can trade based off my setup that is a 100% gurantee.

I was wondering, do you trade futures? Do you post your trade log on a public site so I can see how you trade so I can figure out your setups to be profitable. Thanks, because I don't know how to trade and my trades are all random.

If I bounce back from this, you may be the person that helped me, honestly, thanks for your comments, I realize I need to lower my size and use my stops.

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