Thursday, July 12, 2007

July 12 Trade Summary $703




Well my trading results were similar to yesterdays performance in terms of profitability during the time I traded. I traded light today because I was skeptical of the extreme bullishness. For most the day I watched the NYSE A/D trade lower while YM kept pushing higher. I made about $600 during the first 2 hours and then struggled to make the next $100. I could have made $1k more if I had shorted ER2 instead of YM around 1am EST, after getting the intermarket relationship trade pattern between ZN and ES around 1am. I scaled into TLT too soon and took a loss on it, but watching it along with ZN helped me turn a losing trade on YM into a small winner.(Like I said , I should have shorted ER2 or ES, because they are more bearish right now over YM and NQ). ZN and CL really tanked pretty hard during the time that I traded. I guess I should have been trading CL and ZN and just rode the trend. Every extreme NYSE low tick was a buy signal on YM this morning up until about 1am(extremely bullish day-A/D was 4:1 or greater during periods of todays' trading). I guess I should have gone long off of the news I read yesterday about the record short interest in ES. I'm done for the day, I have other business to tend to. I may not be trading tomorrow because I have work early.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great job. One thing though: Your analysis seems to be filled with a lot of "coulda shoulda woulda". This might be outcome bias sneaking into your analysis. I would focus more on process and less on the rationale (really infinite reasons) why one market was technically a better long or short intraday.

High Probability Trader on 7:03 PM said...

Your right,
I have a more difficult time trading trending days, but I have been getting better, normally I lose on trending days. Having audible alerts when certain parameters have been meet like the A/D issues, total volume, NYSE TICK lows/highs, ADX, Sector strength, might be a good idea. Sometimes I think it would be a good idea to have an alert that tells me that the A/D issues is extremely bullish "you should not be short", or "tick has been above -200 all day, long only". Normally I would have shorted this market, thinking we were overbought, and then averaged into a fat loser. Instead I traded smaller size and was more cautious on my trades. More work needs to be done on my part for sure. Although today I'm regretful on the trades I missed, I know that tomorrow will be another day and opportunity, I just need to put some anger into the trades that I miss so that I remember them better for next time.

Jason on 8:34 PM said...

no such thing as "overbought" or "oversold" bro, forget those words, an indicator cant control the market. it knows no bounds. master that and become rich.

High Probability Trader on 9:55 PM said...

Jason, your right, no such thing as over-BLAH...I don't use those indicators, but I do tend to think in what is normal and unusual trading ranges for the indices and 280pts on DJI is extreme.

JJ2000426 on 2:16 AM said...

SWC had a very nice rally today. This is a great entry for this incredible bullish stock. It can be compared to PCU 4 years ago. Both return 2000% (20 folds) in just 4 years. I have made a very strong case for SWC super bull. Do your own DD on palladium.

Look at this perfect chart

Google keyword "palla lunar" (one word no space). And follow the Russian enigma!

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