Thursday, August 30, 2007

Aug 30 $1,500 on 130c

Well, I did better today. I should have gone short about the time I made my last post, but I think I was feeling a little shaky after having the quick reversal after the news on the UN nerve gas scare around 9:15am. I'm glad I didn't wuss out and not trade today.

P/L= $1,500 on 130c

Apparently tomorrow is the big day for Bernanke if you hadn't heard it 50million times already on CNBC. I'm expecting the market to sell off because of the way the daily charts look, but when looking at the volume on bonds and equities I'm suspect. Yesterday was a short covering rally and the day before that the smart guys were buying into the close already knowing the market was geared to go down. I hope the market breaks out a direction and some volume comes back into these markets. What I notice that is interesting today is that volume on ZN is about half its' avg., and when comparing the volume between ZN and ES, ZN it about half as much, when normally it is more (ie 1.8mil instead of 990k). This makes me think bond traders are expecting some wild action tomorrow and are taking off before bernanke speaks, which isn't a bad idea. The fact that ZN went up today and volume was lighter makes me think that equities have a stronger chance of a bull rally tomorrow and bonds will sell off, or maybe we just have a non event snooze fest tomorrow and everyone takes off for labor day vacation. I know one thing for sure, and that is that I need a vacation, but I'm to young to rest.


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