Friday, September 21, 2007

Odds of a Recession,,,???


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the odds of a recession remain ’somewhat more’ than one in three even after this week’s cut in interest rates, with home prices likely to drop further and hurt consumer spending.....

OK, can someone tell me the logic behind giving ratios for a recession.....Does it make any sense?

When we get to a 98% chance of a Recession Mr. Greenspan, should I start to worry?

Honestly, what decides these ratio's that are just crapped out?

When the GDP goes to 2.5%, how will that affect the "chance of a recession"?

When the Fed cut US GDP forecast for 2007 back on FEB 14, guess what happened a couple of weeks later???? Correlation or Causation?

You know I heard that 80% of statistics are wrong???Does that make any sense?

OK so what is a Recession "EXACTLY",,,here is the official quote taken from the online Dictionary,,WIKIPEDIA---

In macroeconomics, the definition of recession is a decline in any country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, this definition is not universally accepted. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy is called economic collapse.

OK, did I just read that right?
INFLATION-- of COMMODITIES---CHECK
DEFLATION-- of US DOLLAR-------CHECK
DECLINE IN GDP--------------------CHECK
THAT EQUALS-------------------3/3=100%

BUT MR GREENSPAN says the chances of a RECESSION ARE-----33%

SO what definition is Greenspan basing his "chances of a recession" on?

Here is a table of some of the interest rates around the globe stolen from FXSTREET-



You know, I read in Mark Fishers book, the only 3 questions that count,,, that as long as the Global GDP is up, the bullish bias in the stock market will continue, with the countries with the best GDP's obviously out performing, and THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING,,,,,,FXI,,,,,100% up room to go....FISHER OWN'S---- PTR, so does Buffet,,,You know who owns FXI,,,,James Simons over at Renaissance Trading.....110% up room to go,,
with GUARANTEED ZERO RISK BABY!!!

So as long as we remain in the dark on where the US GDP stands, and we keep getting bad economic #'s that the FED can laugh at,,, the market can keep going up. Meanwhile the GDP in China is on a tear.....OK look at this chart,,,,SYMBOL CEA--



It's an airline carrier,,,,,?????? Needless to say, if it had options, I would buy every put I could on it...Meanwhile the airline sector in every other country besides China, is going anywhere but up.

Guess what, we got the BoE (bank of England) with the interest rate decision coming up October 3, and guess who's got the ol' credit worry and discount window thing going on right now!?

If you are a BEAR,,,,,you have got to be psychologically going through some SERIOUS PAIN right now!


3 comments:

Dinosaur Trader on 5:36 AM said...

I like the rants, HPT. I feel like you're like this dude now...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08

Anyway, have a great weekend.

Take it easy,

-DT

George said...

Hi HPT,
All statistics used by politicians are inevitably misleading. For instances, the inflation index ridiculously excludes the prices of energy, food, housing, education,and healthcare. The unemployment number released by the Labor Department does not count those lost jobs for more than 26 weeks, that is the reason for low unemploymet statistics. When these people reluctantly accept other much lower pay jobs, the DoL counts that as job creation! What a big lie to mislead the naive citizens!
With an astronomical number of national debt and a shamefully huge budget deficit, just 3 days ago, Dick Cheney still re-iterated the big lie that 8 million new jobs had been created by his great administration. Does he really think the people of this great nation are nothing but gullible idiots?
Statistics doesn't lie, but politicians can manipulate statistics to cover their lies.

I noticed that you are in a transition from an aggressive scalper to a prudent market observer, right?

High Probability Trader on 11:32 AM said...

DT, that video is AWESOME!

George,
I'm a Critical thinker, I may switch to swing trading with my current schedule. I have a feeling whoever becomes the next president is going to inherit a whole pile of crap along with it and the US citizens//media are going to realize what has been happening all along, and then the blame will be put on the new president.

Stay short homebuilders, long china, short the US dollar. Nothings changed....Or,,,

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