Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Surprise Fed interest rate cut


You knew this was going to happen,,,,,right. A day late and 30k dollars short.

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

NEVER GIVE UP!!!
You have learned a lot and will come back stronger than ever.

Anonymous said...

Hang in there man and ignore all the idiots. It takes a lot of courage to share this ordeal publicly as you have.

Buzz Saw on 12:12 PM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

fed loves traders on margin and full tilt, they knew the bounce would help the elite and hurt the poor.

Jason on 12:15 PM said...

I'm feeling for you, and I've been there. My first year of trading I went up 20k and then 1 short trade and I was gone.

Life is the teacher and right now it's dishing it out. But it sounds like you already have learned a bit. Don't forget there no amount of money that will provide happiness to you.

Anonymous said...

Congrats on pocketing 2k trading today. But I suspect you are still taking on too much risk with what is left of your account. If 30k loss was resulting in margin call, what is left? 20k. So you returned 10% today? Like I said, sounds like you are still using way too much leverage. Good thing the trade has been 2-sided today because runaway markets are what get you in trouble.

Anonymous said...

There are some real A holes out there in the Internet.

Anonymous said...

You are not an idiot, you are a human. Read the Mark Douglas book "Trading in the Zone" and "The Complete Turtletrader" by Michael Covel. The trend is your friend. Don't pick tops and bottoms. Question everything you thought you knew right now and relearn the correct way.

CN

Anonymous said...

Honestly, sign up with Investools. They're great.

cobra2411 on 1:17 PM said...

I know it sucks, but keep up the good attitude. I blew up 50k last year because I didn't bail on a trade when I knew I should have. It was similar to when you where 7k down, you didn't want to let go...

I think that everybody that makes it as a long term trader has those stories to tell.

I also wanted to thank you for putting the video's and the blog out there. Most people would try and hide the losses, but you've shown people the real life of a trader. We're not always on the right side.

I know some other people have suggested it, but you should look at www.tickerforum.org. Lots of smart people over there.

Good luck.

Anonymous said...

A very high percentage of successful traders have blown up. CUT LOSSES early. I lost my house, my wife, and pretty much everything seven years ago. You're not doing too bad! You need to stop trading for at least 4 months and honestly review your basis and judgement by being ruthlessly honest with yourself. Nothing less will do. Suggestion: stop all related market activity of any nature to rid yourself of further cognitive and emotional poisoning. A few months, or years from now you'll be ready. Oh, and take full responsibility for everything.

Anonymous said...

keep hustlin, you are a star on youtube and looked up to by many.

Anonymous said...

Chalk up another voice of "It takes a lot of balls to post this stuff up online and it sounds like you're on the road to bouncing back." As a former online poker pro who had regular ~$10k swings, I sort of feel your pain. What the mind perceives as abject unfairness is pretty tough to deal with at times. Hang in there!!

Suckass said...

High Probability

LOL

What a great blogname, how ironic.

Anonymous said...

As you said, your biggest problem was that you were far too leveraged. You have to limit your losses and let your proffits run. For example never risk more than 2% of your capital on any trade.

You had also bet against the longterm trend (down), which is never a good idea. I can recomend you Trend Following, from Michael Cowel.

It's a great resource about how to trade. I wish you a fast recovery and many proffitable trades in the future.

Anonymous said...

Don't quit, start over... It takes a honest man to show everyone what happend.
Life is not only trading, care about everything around you! Take some weeks off to get your mind at ease.

You still have a dream! Believe in it! There are more worse things than losing money!

Think About It said...

Hey HPT,

Kudos on the blog. I have been reading occasionally for some time and am truly sorry to hear about your "blow-up" trade. It is an unfortunate circumstance, but I think you have the ability to recover. If, ...and ONLY IF you recognize your mistakes? (1)AN EXIT STRATEGY and the (2)DISCIPLINED EXECUTION thereof. Easy to say, much harder to do. A DISCIPLINED EXIT when a trade moves against you lets you "live to trade another day". Barring the end of civilization as we know it, there will always be another opportunity to trade! So keep your losses small(as defined as a % of your trading capital)and move on to your next trade.

With regard to the pathetic cowards riding your ass while hiding behind their keyboards: Forget them!(Gentle Euphemism)

Here's wishing you Good Trading in the future HPT!

Anonymous said...

hey dumbass anon, the long term fu@king trend is up. i didn't have to rea michael's book to figure it out either idiot.

Anonymous said...

You were in full amateur "deer in the headlights" paralysis mode as you sat there making a video of yourself watching the losses mount. Everybody lays on idiotic trades, but it's how you manage it that separates the surviving pros from the other 99% who don't make it in this game. You learn through the pain. Studying charts more, playing with new indicators, backtesting, and all that crap for another 10 years won't teach you the lesson you learned this weekend. You probably shocked yourself with how weak you became at the moment of truth. Same shit happens tomorrow, how do you react? Same way or different? You have no idea, do you? Well, it's a good thing you can't trade 10 cars anymore. You can't handle it and you don't deserve it. But if this is your chosen path, then getting back on the horse is the right thing. You only learn to trade by actual realtime trading with your real money on the line. Good luck to you.

Nils on 1:54 PM said...

Oh no...you traded today...

Take a break for at least 3 months...you will go broke if you don't this year. Trust me.

I you keep on trading with this mental issue you will panic too quickly.

2% of the decisions make a good trader and you are lost atm.

Please take a break!

Anonymous said...

We were passing your video around our office today. While we did derive some sick pleasure from it, I can also sympathize because I think anyone that's done this for a while has been in your shoes at one point. Some days you're the dog, some days you're the hydrant.

You are your own worst enemy. One suggestion for you: stop thinking. Life teaches us to use our "good judgment," however when you do this in trading you will always lose. Stop rationalizing if the fed does this, or if the Yen does that. Stop focusing on the results and stop thinking about the money. Find a highly probable setup, such as box plays, set your parameters and focus on managing the trade well. You will not always be right, but if you can do this, you will be rich. If you can't, you'll be reliving today over and over again until you finally give up trading. Think of the 30k you lost as your Harvard MBA.

The price action today makes perfect sense to anyone that really understands how the markets work. When you learn WHY today makes sense and why brokers routinely take the opposite side of their customer's trades, you'll be on your way to being consistently profitable.

Also, always keep in mind that the money didn't magically appear in your account. It wasn't your gold star for doing something right. It's not ice cream for getting all A's on your report card. The money that you made is there because someone else did something wrong.


Good luck, and good trading. If you can make it through this, you'll be able to make it through any market.

doug said...

Hang in there! It was awesome to see you examine what you did wrong today.
You're on the right track and will certainly recover from this! Glad to hear that you will work more on position sizing -- that and "patience" will be your best business partners.

Anonymous said...

ALL THE GREAT ONES HAVE BEEN THERE BRO, HANG IN THERE AND NEVER EVER EVER GIVE UP! YOU KNOW YOU ARE OVER LEVERAGED, SO JUST TAKE IT SLOW. THANK YOU MUCH FOR POSTING WHAT HAPPENED TODAY IT IS A WAKEUP CALL AND LOTS OF PEOPLE RESPECT YOUR TOTAL VULNERABILITY BY SHARING WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU. TAKE CARE

Anonymous said...

Hey,

Congrats on that 2k win. Small step to getting back.

I like that video seminar based on your own experience. It is educational in the way that it reminds me of the ever present RISK out there. Keep it up, champ. Ignore the haters.

Victor

Buzz Saw on 2:23 PM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

At first I felt sorry for you, then looked at your blow up posts. You've been doing the same thing for the past 7 months and most likely well before that. In June you wrote.
"This is a classic newbie mistake of trading too large of size, not using stops, and freezing up and waiting until you felt the max pain on your position."

You clearly haven't learned from your past mistakes. I suggest you that stop trading with real money until you figure all of your problems out.

But what do I know..

Everyone who post's stuff like "hang in there" should read your blow up posts.
http://highprobability.blogspot.com/search/label/Trading%20Blow%20Up

Buzz Saw on 2:32 PM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

http://www.slopeofhope.com/2008/01/i-couldnt-help.html#disqus_thread


timknight spoof of your video.

Anonymous said...

Buy physical gold and silver.

The US is in deep sh1t and no matter how many reinflation attempts, the US will suffer a recession, affecting the whole world. Like you said, no point holding too much cash or bonds, US will sacrifice the dollar. Real estate is in a protracted path down. Equities - the situation is currently UNCLEAR. Diversify and hold at least 10% of your assets in Gold and silver.

Kind regards - trader in the United Kingdom.

Anonymous said...

Silly boy... You will loose evrything and perhaps a bit more if you do not take a step back for a while. What is your addiction here,the blog, the losses, are you on drugs? I am being serious when I ask that question. At this point you are obviuosly broken. Step back and figure out what you need to fix, fix it, then try again. You wouldn't continue to drive your car with a flat tire would you? Well my friend you have a flat. Good luck to you. I hope you have family/friends who worry about you.

Anonymous said...

Money management. That's it. It's a good thing you're forced to trade smaller again. You need the practice. I'm not going to tell you to take a break. Obviously, you're too deep into this for that. But as long as you're still going to swim with the sharks, you can best use the time to learn and practice safety skills. Losing 60%, 80%, all of it, it's really of little difference? I'm assuming this is play money for trading, and you're not dependent on it for food, rent and the cable bill.

Trade one contract. Yeah, you have a big enough account for more, but trade one. Concentrate on your exits. We all enter trades, rightly or wrongly, for different reasons. Doesn't really matter why or even when. Your success depends solely on how, when and why you exit the trade. Work on that. Harness your emotions on your one contract trades. Forget about the P/L for awhile. You won't go broke with one contract for a long, long time, and forget about recouping your losses too. That ain't happening with one contract. All you need to do is learn the skills you lack: harnessing your emotions and mastering your exit strategy. You get that in line and you'll find you'll be rackingup a long string of winning days. Then you can do battle again, smarter and prepared.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for sharing your experience.

In the long term picture of your trading career this will no doubt be memorable, but certainly not the end.

Grind your way back to where you were, hang in there. You must be a tough f@#cker mentally to post this experience for others to learn from.

Just trade by your rules, and things will work out.

Thanks again.

d7 on 3:16 PM said...

You so rock.... I love your "I'll be back" attitude and that you shared those things that you've learned from this experience. These past couple of days will make you an even more solid trader.

I'm the owner of FreeTradingVideos.com ---we're only three months old but becoming pretty popular amongst the trading community...It's crazy...anyway we've started a forum thread in your honor. We've been discussing mistakes to learn from them but more importantly we've been cheering you on. Please come and say Hi...you're a celebrity. You will be warmly received. It's a great group of seasoned traders.

d7

Alex on 3:20 PM said...

I don't mean to kick you when your down but are you gonna have to pay 20K in taxes on your gains from last year?

I have had my account cut in half two times on big gambles. It was the best thing that ever happened to me cause now I don't gamble anymore!!! I now avg 1-2K per day daytrading and if I do hold a position overnight I keep stops and EXPECT my stops to get hit. You always have to be willing to truly accept the risks you are taking in order to succeed.

The thing that took me to the next level was trading full time. I used to work a tech job and trade as much as I could during the work day. This is so f'ing hard having to be distracted with work and other things while trying to trade.

The only way to make big money trading is to do it full time.

Anonymous said...

Do yourself a favour: STOP trading futures without a STOP LOSS! STOP trading futures the day before and after a major holiday. STOP breaking your own trading rules. When FED's cutting take a look at yield stocks, there are plenty and they are cheap these days. The financial markets are not casinos.

Do yourself a favour: STOP trading futures without a STOP LOSS! STOP trading futures the day before and after a major holiday. STOP breaking your own trading rules. When FED's cutting take a look at yield stocks, there are plenty and they are cheap these days. The financial markets are not casinos.

Do yourself a favour: STOP trading futures without a STOP LOSS! STOP trading futures the day before and after a major holiday. STOP breaking your own trading rules. When FED's cutting take a look at yield stocks, there are plenty and they are cheap these days. The financial markets are not casinos.

Do yourself a favour: STOP trading futures without a STOP LOSS! STOP trading futures the day before and after a major holiday. STOP breaking your own trading rules. When FED's cutting take a look at yield stocks, there are plenty and they are cheap these days. The financial markets are not casinos.

Do yourself a favour: STOP trading futures without a STOP LOSS! STOP trading futures the day before and after a major holiday. STOP breaking your own trading rules. When FED's cutting take a look at yield stocks, there are plenty and they are cheap these days. The financial markets are not casinos.

Do yourself a favour: STOP trading futures without a STOP LOSS! STOP trading futures the day before and after a major holiday. STOP breaking your own trading rules. When FED's cutting take a look at yield stocks, there are plenty and they are cheap these days. The financial markets are not casinos.

FaceDown said...

I hadn't been to your blog before last night (obviously because of the meltdown video). Without knowing anything else about you other than the 2 videos I've seen, I'd say you deserve much more praise than ridicule.

I'm a bit older than you and I imagine that I would have felt about the same way if I had lost $31k in a flash. I might not have reacted in the same way and I wouldn't have had the courage to post it for everybody to see. For posting the video, you deserve heaps of praise. Thousands of people have watched it now and for every person that is laughing at you there are 10 people who learned something new about how to handle their own investing.

I just wanted to say thank you for sharing this with us and I hope that your luck continues to improve like it did with your gains today.

Anonymous said...

I lost a lot more than that in the last few months and I know the pain. I'm older and playing with a lot more money. I showed my girlfriend your video and said 'that's how I feel sometimes, I just ain't saying it'. Don't play with too much is a good rule I also need to stick with. I went all in Friday, margin and cash, and was panicked all weekend but held till today and came out ahead.

T5 Trading on 5:19 PM said...

I have been in your shoes.
Thank you for sharing this with everyone. Your honesty is very admirable. So many people can learn some much from this.

Anonymous said...

Elementary, my dear watson. You committed primitive mistakes encountered by most rookies. Make a million and subsequently give it all back. Nothing new. Just the players change!

Anonymous said...

Use this sudden popularity to your advantage. Spend some time on your blog and you will gain a lot of traffic from this.

Sorry for your loss.

Anonymous said...

How much leverage are you using? If you made $2K on a $15K account in one day you are still using too much. I would recommend you keep trading but don't use ANY leverage for a while (the size of your position in dollars should not exceed the size of your account in dollars). Trading will be alot more fun because you won't have any stress and you can see how good you are at making money because you made the right decision instead of how much margin you have remaining. If you feel comfortable using leverage again put a STRICT limit on it I would recommend anywhere between 4:1 to 8:1 at the most but DON'T go any higher. Good luck.

~ porsche911

TMK500 said...

It's clear you've touched a resonant emotion in a lot folks and have generated more comments and responses on your abberant large loss than the sum total of interest in your ability to properly read order flow, exhaustion spikes and intermarket analysis.

For whatever reason, you've chosen this public cathartic path to "deal" with the situation ... "OK"... it's unique and it's your way of coping: kudos.

Now, Go To Ground ... get back to your roots and your "edge". Is your edge on market timing the larger swings or grinding it out on the short term interval? Do that which feels comfortable because you've practiced the competent trade to the point of being bored and pay your way through life -- enjoy the bounty that your screen time, methodology and unique "day to day" methods have afforded you. The legacy HPT trader stayed on the positive side of the equity curve week in and week out without the account crippling blowups.

You've already demonstrated time and time again that you've discovered how to exploit and execute on your "edge" in grinder mode .... and, you have done so without investing a bazillion $$$ in a bunch of silly retail trading seminars. You self education, unique intermarket approach for trade management and ability to read order flow has seperated you from a "herd" of retail mutts who refuse to do the hard work and continue to shell out $$$ for the latest "squiggly line" indicator panacea.

Finally, my parting thought --- "It's OK to be successful." I know that sounds like psychobabble tripe BS, but you've set yourself up for the "Big One" time and time again after being on a pretty decent equity run. I've seen the type, I know the type, I am "the type" --- until you believe that you really deserve to consitently be on the winning side, you'll find a way to sabotage yourself and engage, once again, in a cathartic drama for all to hear and see around the world.

I'm looking forward to your future posts that continue to show the detailed analysis of why you executed a particular trade in a particular way and justify the reasoning for taking that trade a 1000 times again.




TMK500

Anonymous said...

Dude your video was absolutely so funny to me because I completely identified with it 100%. This is a wright of passage in Trading and weve all been and still continue to expereince it. I think you will end up being very successful for some reason. You have guts and seem to be lacking ego, and this is good. Ego kills trading accounts permenantly..somehow I know youll grow from this like all great traders do..

Thanks for the window into myself.. so damed funny especially when you froze and then later got up frustrated and angry..lol..
Paul

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