Tuesday, January 22, 2008

When the market bounces


I'm seeing a 200pt spike up on the DAX and large spikes up in the FTSE right now. Limit downs taken off futures it appears. When the market bounces and puts in a huge reversal after flushing out all the longs, be sure to come by and tell me I'm an idiot for calling this a market crash.
Listen to CNBC tell you that a 20% drop in less then a month isn't a crash and the US market isn't in a recession. Invest for the long term horizon, you may lose 20-100% of your account now, but just remember, is for the long haul,,,,because we all know the future will be better than it is now,,,,,,RIGHT?

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey brother - Thanks for doing all this. This has fortified my belief in investing for the long haul. I am serious here not just picking at you. I wouldn't go through the range of emotion you have gone through in one day for any return. Money is no good to you if you die of a coronary before 50. Do yourself a favor and try to get some sleep. At this point nothing but time will change you predicament. Good luck and thanks again.

Anonymous said...

Hi

I'm really sorry to see what has happened to you. Your You Tube vid brought back memories of me Day Trading in 2000.

Don't forget the old chinese proverb:

This too will pass.

Take care.

G

Boglehead said...

You really should check out Diehards when you are ready to come back. It will put you on the path to real wealth. Not as exciting, but that is why we have Vegas. At least there you would be drunk on thier booze in your comped room right now. Take some time off and check out www.diehards.org. Plenty of folks like you there ready to help out. Sooner or later you will get tired of loosing all your money. Good luck to you.

Anonymous said...

Hey man, don't quit on day trade. I made a good choise by switching to currencies few weeks ago , so I am out of the stock market thank god ,because otherwise would have gone long at some point.

Open a currency account with 1k and keep trade for pinuts.That's the only way to keep on going...

rramse said...

I also cursed at that same IB screen while getting slaughtered in Nymex crude oil minis one weekend. (Right after I bailed, they went back up.) That was a couple years ago. In trading, experience only comes from mistakes.

10 ER2H8 contracts over the weekend with no stops? You shouldn't even be trading IB without a front-end tool to manage targets and scale out of positions. BracketTrader, Ninja, etc.

Get some help, don't do this alone.

Anonymous said...

I have been at the same Fucking place not log ago losing $38000. Fuck it. I dont trade anymore, and my life is better now.

LP on 5:38 AM said...

HPT,

This is a strong learning experience for you. I will not sympathize with you or provide you words of comfort. What you have learned will teach you a lesson that will be passed on to your kids. And while it hurts more than I can imagine, this is the kind of lesson that will make you a better trader than all of us combined. You've already blown up, we have yet to. Your time has passed, our clocks are ticking.

Don't quit. Take a break if you need it, even if it's a long one. But come back one day and laugh at the rest of us doing foolish things.

Also, I agree with you your previous post. Have more sex and fall in love but don't get married. Then you won't have sex.

LP

Anonymous said...

er2 ticking up high, you sold out at near the bottom mr hpt.

KC Equity Trader on 6:41 AM said...

Keep your head up.

How you can deal in tough times defines what type of man you are.

Step away and come back when your ready.

Brian on 6:54 AM said...

Your blog is very informative to people like me. I was considering getting into day trading with some extra money. Now I think I'll stick to long term investing. I am very sorry for your loss. I really hope things work out for you and you're able to make the money back. Take care.

Anonymous said...

Good blog. Sorry that you lost your money, but in the long run, it was a good lesson to learn and there was no permanent damage. I continue to maintain that day trading is a bad field to be in. Trying to make money off other peoples' money is not an honorable way to make a living. It may be legal, but it's not honorable. You seem smart and capable - you should find something more rewarding and less risky to dedicate your energy towards. The stock market isn't it. Look at the players in the market. Are any of these people the kind of people you'd really want to hang out with? They're obsessed with money and superficiality. Fuck that.

Anonymous said...

You are NOT an idiot as I've said in a earlier post yesterday.
And you are right in this post (your sarcasm is right). Here is a great example, in these comments, how people are conditioned to believe in "buy and hold" - they will lose everything before it's all said and done in a few years. So stick to your intraday trading that you've been much better at!
I had said the DOW would close around 11720 - now that I have the open bar I still call for a close in the low 11700's, and it will continue down in days/weeks to come. The rate cute will have no effect for those holding their positions. We will be lower as the year goes on.

Now that your account is under 25K, you are limited to 3 day trades every 5 days. Take a breather, re-examine your trading "system", stay away from futures and daytrade individual stocks until you bring your account back up above $25K. Stay calm. Your biggest challenge will be dealing with the fear you will have when you initiate any trade. But that will be overcome if you stay calm, stay more conservative, don't gamble but use indicators or a system that you trust and do only what it tells you to do. You will be back above $25K soon.
You're a bright young guy. Use discipline and you'll overcome fairly soon.

Anonymous said...

glad a picked up a few russell contracts last night at 640.

Anonymous said...

It's a good thing your blog is worth 22K. Maybe you can sell it to recoup some of your losses. Sorry you got housed. Take care.

Alex_NY said...

My friend go to some other business.. Real estate, selling something, maybe start a coffee shop, there are many options...
But stock market it is a very tough game and for a small guy it is much easier to lose money than to make it, because there is so little room for an error...

MIsstrade on 7:25 AM said...

step away from the screens clear your head, your bitterness is effecting your trading. Never trade mad, never trade to get even. Step away from the screens. Come back with clearer risk strategies next time.

Anonymous said...

You're an idiot. (you said to)

Anonymous said...

take another gander at the long-term stock market returns.

that index fund is waiting with open arms.

Anonymous said...

you were off by a few days, should have bought on the dip and sold now for a monster profit.

Anonymous said...

You're an idiot for calling it a market crash.

Anonymous said...

HPT-

I suggest you speak with a tax professional to deal with your situation.

It may not have occurred to you yet that you owe taxes on, by your statement, about 40k in gains, despite your recent loses.

Not what you wanted to hear, but something you need to be prepared for non the less.

J Parker

writersblock said...

No one's an idiot. We all make mistakes, whether in the market, or elsewhere. The trick is to learn from them, and to not repeat them. My advice? First, stop watching CNBC. I repeat, stop watching CNBC. THey have an agenda that's not in your best interest. Try Bloomberg, where, this morning, not withstanding, they rarely lose their heads, but do provide all the same breaking market news without all the hype and the play at your emotions. Keep those under control, and you're 95% of the way there. PS: I don't know when you made the 40K mentioned above, but if it's this year, those recent loses will make a nice writeoff against the gain.

Anonymous said...

you owe the government about 13k+++ in taxes for the last calender year. If only this would have happened before Dec31.

Anonymous said...

You should have stayed in your YM position. You would have broken even by now.

Glenn on 9:10 AM said...

Stop F'ing aroung and get back to work. We need to use stops tho.

As I always say to my biker buddies, If you don't crash, you ain't riding hard enough.

Buzz Saw on 9:20 AM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Relax, take a few deep breaths, and then focus on what you know works.

If your're ready for a break, check out this guy who has is made:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZGRRgwlPQs

Sure wish I had his job!

Take care and let us know how you made out today. The market is not down as much as you feared, and may even bounce back.

Anonymous said...

A suggestion from someone who knows what this feels like: when you are looking for a major turn like this and think it's at hand, wait ONE MORE DAY before taking your position (and THEN use a tight stop). Being "a little early" is far from a small error and can make all the difference in the world, in this case between a gain and a crippling loss. It's usually far better to be a LITTLE late. The people who are right on the direction but say that they "usually are a little early" often are people who end up exposed to tremendous financial pain before they see any gain.

Anonymous said...

look at the bright side, you are ranked on the front page of youtube education tab, i hope you learn a valuable lesson young man. good luck in the future(s).

disinterested third party said...

You are an idiot for calling the market bottom ;)

Now that we get that out of the way, my compliments on taking it like a man.

Traders are not known for readily admitting mistakes, but I admire your enthusiasm in making mistakes and coming clean.

You know best what you have to do next. Best of luck with future trades, if you come back to trading. I would hate to see your blog goes dim. Thank you for the lessons.

Anonymous said...

Hey man, I was one of those a-holes laughing at you, but I thought it was a joke video, sorry. Take it easy, it's life, enjoy it cause it's short, no matter what the ups and downs may be.

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