Thursday, June 19, 2008

100% LONG until Years End


The Media has found the people to Blame at Bear Sterns. Last time we played the blame game for the Stock Markets problems was January 21, I remember this day well....
Whenever we play the Blame Game, THE MARKET RALLIES HARD.
We also got strong selling in commodity related,,,everything. Makes me feel a little better;however, Crude Oil is still in its 10 day trading range even with todays 5 dollar selloff.
I agree with what Stewie sees in the markets here. Depending how the market shapes up here, I'm prepared to start trading Airlines Long, Ag's Short, Crude Short, Long Financials, Long Transports. The bounce in the airlines today still may be premature to call a bottom, I was kinda-of waiting until August to see if any bankruptcies in the airlines were going to be announced, but now may be the time to start trading this inverse pair relationship.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

ok sorry had to bite (trying to be an airline pilot here so I follow the industry like a hawk) long time reader so i'll put in my .02.

weird AMR got upgraded today so you're not the only one thinking airlines.. course I still think it's too early to jump in the airlines, oil is stuck where it is short term, maybe one more month waiting or after the summer..maybe AMR only with a little HA for now (possible LUV, they've survived this period)

But yeah avoid MESA, expressjet those two should fail soon, LCC is in big trouble..but my top picks going up in order are..AMR/CAL/Skywest/HA especially HA if mesa does goes chapter 7 or 11 with their Go! Airlines mess in Hawaii..Aloha went BK and you can see when that happened looking at the hawaiian airlines chart..they're one of the only airlines hiring pilots now, they're like one of the only stocks along with LUV that went up the last few months, if oil pops and we experience a turnaround those stocks I listed will be good in my opinion.

Ok that's my .02 (cool blog)

HPT on 3:05 PM said...

Seasonally Crude and Natural Gas are strong until August. So my gut feeling is to wait until August before turning bullish on Airlines and bearish on Crude. Thanks for your input. There should be a good opportunity in Airlines when/if crude oil turns around.

Anonymous said...

no problem :) keep blogging! good stuff ;)

thelonelytrader on 5:29 PM said...

Long Airlines? Financials? Now? Not as bad as longing the auto industry, but almost...I suppose it matters which stock you choose...and I wouldn't touch crude, ags or metals right now, either, unless I was holding them for extremely short periods of time. But I'm a chicken$#!t.

HPT on 5:56 PM said...

LT,
The airlines and financials do look like death, but there will be a short covering rally in these sectors eventually. The question is when, and how much further down we will go. Do you think all the airlines are going to zero or bankrupt? That would suck. I think in a few months from now, things will be looking quite different in these sectors and the oil situation will be better. Right now I'm just day trading YM and stocks. I haven't committed to any long term holds in the acct yet. In the sim. acct. I have positions in the AMR, as a way to keep track of whats going on in that sector. Thanks for commenting.

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