Friday, June 06, 2008

Oil Panic setting up




I mentioned that there is probably a LONG natural gas & SHORT Crude Oil hedge trade going on. The energy Complex, most specifically; Natural Gas, is in a seasonal BULL phase with Hurricane season approaching.




I'm not sure what is crazier, The price of Crude Oil or buying a Crude Oil ATS off of eBAY for $2,000???


I missed an easy setup


I missed the 2nd leg down going to the bathroom, I had to trade long scalps. Pretty tough with a market down about 300pts. My long YM scalps were golden, but I screwed up on my NQ long that I averaged into.



I put on these positions a long time ago on the simulator, the positions were at an all time high yesterday, over $7,000, and then the unemployment # came out. What did you expect? The market to crawl up everyday with no worries along the way?

3 comments:

tapeworm on 7:21 AM said...

if hurricanes go anywhere near those oil rigs in the gulf, crude will rise too...IMO, demand is the only real cause of the uptrend....every commodity sector is in an established uptrend, and until they give some sort of "real" reversal signals, shorting is a bad idea

these commodity cycles can last decades...i could very well be wrong, but i don't see yesterday's action as a blowoff top...u need confirmation, and it closed on its highs...if someone was shown a chart of oil, but it was labeled IBM, they would say this is obviously a great company....they would point out the breakout from the bull flag

since its oil and not IBM everyone's against it...as long as the blame is put on oil companies, refineries, and speculators, the "real" top is probably not in...there are a lot of people still betting against this, and obviously aren't positioned to take advantage of it...when ur cab driver or pizza delivery guy starts telling u that he is hedged against the rise in crude, u can sell

anyway, i'm just spewing my opinion which is bullshit most of the time

HPT on 8:44 AM said...

You know what,I would have to agree with you. An $11 jump in crude is still pretty crazy tho. It makes you wonder how far down the airlines will go, and which ones will go bankrupt as a result.

tapeworm on 4:56 PM said...

hpt: i agree with u on trying to find a place to buy airlines, but i could never do it myself...and ur right, an $11 move in oil over two days is definitely crazy!

i don't have the balls to play crude the crude contract anymore...when i was attempting to do it before, it wasn't near as volatile as it is now, and i still lost money :-)

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