Monday, June 16, 2008

Selling Longs




In the Sim acct. I've sold most my longs because bond futures look like they have bottomed out and there looks to be resistance on the stock indices.



I went short some high flyer's as well-(JRCC, SOLF)- All the shorts closed red on the day-



OPEX week, expecting the indices to contract up until Friday-


I should have held my long 1 more day.


If you haven't done so already, ROLLOVER your futures contracts for the stock indices.

3 comments:

John on 4:53 PM said...

I've followed and owned SOLF for 6mos. now and it was in a tight range of 20-25 on great earnings. The solar sector moves in tandem mostly so the dip recently under $20 was unexpected. I was going to shift over from DRYS but that stock sent down literally on nothing...makes $15 per share and $19 next year yet sold off from $95 per share down to $70 giving it a PE of 4. Turning their ships to scrap metal is worth more per share than that and they have Ocean Rig to be spun off worth that much. Good time to own as China will go throw their 80 million tons of iron ore needing ships. The Baltic Dry Index(BDI) dictates shipping stocks. FRO is another at $65 pps pays $11 dividend. Anyway, barring a market implosion to March or Jan lows your SOLF short will be underwater unless it was to collect on a pullback tomorrow or the next as it will rise into earnings. GL

HPT on 5:29 PM said...

The BDI looks like it may be setting up for a Dub Top.
The tankers have great dividends, but they aren't your typical momo stock.
SOLF looks like a short squeeze play, Something like 40% short interest according to shortsqueeze.com. I think solars are overhyped. SOLF is at the beginning stages of taking off as a company, but I don't think its going to explode based on its earnings, especially if the RMB declines relative to the US dollar. It's hard to say where its going.

John on 8:06 AM said...

Some solars are vastly overhyped like FSLR and SPWR to name a few...mostly US companies hyped by Cramer. I think FSLR will implode dramatically as it uses a rare element in Tellurium and might be banned in Europe for the Cadmium it leaves behind. Chinese solars are growing exponentially and vastly undervalued compared to US counterparts...SOLF would be in the 100's if priced like FSLR. The currency conversion is vs. the Euro as that is where the sales are but the price per MW has increased dramatically I think to offset that. SOLF est. was $3.85 and last quarter was $4.15 per MW instead. DRYS is the biggest momo stock I've ever seen...went from 55-116-70 back up to $83 up 10% today all in the past few months. You catch a wave or two and your set. Thanks for the reply...even if the BDI comes down as expected with more ships coming online the next few years its multiple is too low to pass up. Grows like Google and makes as much as Google yet 1/7 the price.

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