Monday, July 28, 2008

30yr bond and Mortgage Rate outlook

30 yr Bond Yields- I'm slightly bullish on long bond yields short term, and very bullish long term. After the housing mess, the FED's priority should be to fight inflation and to raise interest rates. Mortgage rates are already on the rise.
Long Term view of 30yr Bonds
Mortgage rates- I doubt we will see 30yr fixed mortgage rates go below 6% again.
FRE weekly Mortgage rates
Mortgage X also has some great historical charts for interest rates

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) - The Russell has been relatively strong compared to DIA and SPY the last couple of weeks. I'm preferring intraday long trades on ER2 (IWM) over YM (DIA).
SPY- Volume is light on this pullback, which could make a bullish case for another bounce up in the market. One of my intraday setups is to look for pullbacks on light volume and to enter long, but this occurs during strong uptrends. Whether or not this is a buy setup will surely depend on the fate of the financial sector (XLF) and whether or not the oil sector holds up (XLE).
FXI- I'm pleased to see that they did a 3:1 stock split July 24. This will make it a better trading product in my opinion.


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