Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Volatile Stock Market


"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotion, spends himself in a worthy cause; who at best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who have never tasted victory or defeat."Theodore Roosevelt

Another Down day in the market. I'm not sure why some people that visit this blog dislike me. I never claimed to be a guru. I've shown great humility and many of my worst trades ever on this blog and yet people find enjoyment in my failures. Besides the negatives, I know for a fact that I have helped many people in there trading and that is why I kept this blog going for so long. I'm not deleting this blog because there is a lot to be learned of the journey I have taken as a trader for the last 3 years. Trading futures is very tough. I first lost half my account in the first 6 months of trading and then I made it all back and doubled my account the following year. At the start of 2008 my account was at its peak and I took a devastating long trade over the holiday weekend which more than wiped out half of my account in a day. No one expected the move January 21 2008. I took some time to recover from the loss. I came back and started trading consistently again and I was up nicely after a couple months. My hope and dreams of making it were starting to come back as a trader but then I made some terrible mistakes in June trying to short Crude Oil when it was around $120 a barrel followed up the next month by betting gold was a good buy around $850, unfortunately my timing was a month off. It was a vicious cycle I had put myself in. A cycle that I had seen for the 2 previous years of trading. Make a sold month worth of profits and then lose it all in a couple days from moving stops because I didn't expect the market to be so wild. I have proven to myself that I lack discipline and that I should practice more even after 3 years of trading.


"I have not failed 10,000 times. I have successfully found 10,000 ways that will not work"Thomas Edison

"The desire to win is born in most of us. The will to win is a matter of training. The manner of winning is a matter of honour."Margaret Thatcher

"Risk more than others think is safe ~ Care more than others think is wise ~ Dream more than others think is practical ~ Expect more than others think is possible." Unknown

"If you love what you do, you won't work a day in your life" origin unknown

"If you believe in yourself, have dedication and pride and never quit, you'll be a winner. The price of victory is high, but so are the rewards."Paul "Bear" Bryant (Late, great coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide football team)

More Great Quotes

23 comments:

wincity on 4:10 PM said...

Well said, man. Just ignore the haters. There're always such people no matter who you are. But how to react to them is up to you.

One comment about your blow-ups. I'm not a futures trader so this is just a comment. I'm only aware of your Jan blow-up and later the gold blow-up. IMO, in both cases, you're against a powerful momentum. And in my experience, they always get much worse than most expect. The market in the last two weeks is also a good example. Another thing is size. If your size is manageable, you run a lot smaller chance of selling the bottom. I believe you sold the bottom or close to it in Jan. Not sure if you sold gold at the bottom.

John on 4:26 PM said...

Hey, yeah your blow-up is what led me here as it was unbelievable the luck or in this case BAD luck. I'm also thankful to be able to check it out every day and learn something new every day. Its not clouded with ridiculous advertising but is well organized, easy to follow, and I agree tons of humility. I too wonder where the bashers who hide beyond the cloak of the Internet come from as your TA is exceptional and admittedly exceeds mine. Hell, there are features on IB that you use and I haven't and I've been with them 5yrs.haha You can't be hard on yourself as this drop has set records reminiscent of the 1930's. I'm definitely a fan so if ever successful you can take your jet to MN and buy me a drink.lol

Sammy said...

Hey just wanted to say I watch your ustream broadcast all the time and have definitely learned from it. Sorry to hear things aren't working out for you. You can trade well and you know what your problems are, and the conditions now make it worse. I trade a similar style and have some of the same bad habits, so hopefully this will be a wake up call to me.

Trading won't be the same without you yelling at the market all day. Guess it's back to DTRS. Since you should have some spare time now, feel free to make that video you talked about before explaining how your indicators are set up in QT :)

elwood on 5:02 PM said...

Keep up the commentary HPT. I for one have learned quite a bit from your trading. Your trades are honest and that's what helps people like myself. I've only been trading futures for the past six months. Wish I could be of help to you, but I'm the student right now.

JC on 5:02 PM said...

Hang tough man. Your intraday buy call today was freaking incredible. I lost out on a ton of money because I didn't believe. You were also fantastic with telling us all not to sell our shorts. You are clearly capable and should do well in the LONG term.

It's a bit like poker, no? stick to your system, be disciplined and success will follow.

tradeitup on 6:26 PM said...

Hey HPT just wanted to let you know that I have been following your blog for about 2 years. I continually come back because i want to see you succeed. You are smart, driven and have the ability to become the successful trader that you want to be. I found your blog early in 2007, when i was just starting out as a trader, and was continually amazed at your ability to make thousands of dollars seemingly everyday. I would hate to see you stop trading but that is a personal choice. This is a tough job and i am just now starting to see some good results after almost 2 years of trading full time. I really believe perseverance is an essential quality in order to succeed at this profession. Just wanted to let you know i enjoyed the blog and wish you the best of luck whether you continue to trade or not.

Anonymous said...

who the heck the that joe the plumber?

Anonymous said...

JohnnyTrader here, You and all of us know that deep inside you can never walk away from this... I know you will be back. Blue Chip traders just like Blue Chip Stocks always bounce back! F Cramer!

FX on 2:11 AM said...

Hi HPT,
Haters on your blog are people that can't stand your swings in p&l. They can't accept that you make so much on your good days, which they can't and than you lose it all in stupid moving stops trades. They think that you don't deserve it, your knowledge, your skill, money, everything. All good traders from blogosphere come here and say only good about you. That is important I think. For heaters it's just easier to hate you than themselves.

One thing I want to mention about your disaster trades that you probably know is that they are different than your usual trading. Saying that crude is short at 120 or gold buy at 850 is some kind of position trading, or swing trading. You don't make money by swing trading, you scalp. So I wouldn't put those kind of trades in the same basket. I just think that you are irrational at some times and there is no rational explanation for that.

Well I had my irrational episode just yesterday. It always look ugly and stupid. I got to accept that and move on. If I look back not on my p&l but on how good or bad trader I am in last 12 months in comparison to 12 months before that is what's keep me going. I just can see that in gold mine of my trading life there is some gold and that I don't want to abandon that pit. It's not empty, I have to continue digging.

Anonymous said...

If you want friends, go to the zoo and feed the animals. lol. Listen, managers trade OTHER PEOPLE'S money for a reason. You can't make 100k on 10k. 1 out of 50,000 do, but then 90% of them do it on luck, not long term skill. That doesn't matter either. HPT, you can stay in the financial area while not trading for a few years. Maybe do the educational-only route, write an on-line book, do a paid chat, etc... All the systems in the world won't change who you are right now...undisciplined, over leveraged, addictive trader. Sounds like me, so I know it doesn't work in the long term. All other blogs out there get income from other sources for a reason. Just do an end-of-day video on what you think, and start slow. And have thick skin....Dude, you fucking suck!!! I fucking suck!! We all fucking suck!!!! Cramer laughs all the way to the bank.

Anonymous said...

HPT, I am pretty sure most people went to your blog to read/see a blow up. Your attraction was a blow up, and I would change that image immediately. Take off all videos to losing trades, all references to losing money, and start over. 99.9% of other gurus don't show audited results because they are no better than you, but they have the perception they have a clue in hindsight. I like the end of day video thought with your signals, and use whatever you like. I would also get rid of most links going to other blogs, unless you can easily link to yours from their blog. Don't let them use you. Best of luck HPT.

Bluedog on 3:51 PM said...

F*** the haters.

I had a modest amount invested in 2006, TRIPLED my account by the end of 2007, and am now back to flat from where I was in '06. Over the past 1 1/2 years, I've learned more about investing than the past 10 years combined. You're young, you'll rebound. The important thing is whether you're learning from the experience.

BTW, I'm buying EXM hand over fist below $10.

Cheers,
BD

Anonymous said...

Interesting, I quoted the very same TD's passage for ET. The thing I found out is that I can't follow somebody else's method. Even though that method was traded live and made mucho bucks. I just have to trade my own creation, falling into my own pit. One day you will find your own way to deal with your one-day-loss-wipes-out-many-days-gain syndrome, good luck.

tapeworm on 5:33 PM said...

i know u took the videos down off of beast mode activated...i think u did 2 one arm pull ups with ur left, and 4 with ur right

just curious...how many regular pull ups can u do?

HPT on 8:52 PM said...

Thanks for the comments guys. I was thinking of putting together a trading game application that would be fun and educational.

Tapeworm,
I can do like 40 or 50 regular pullups. Its better than most, but considering the world record guy can do 100's of pullups nonstop, I'm nowhere near that level. I wish I was great at something. On to the next venture.

HPT on 9:01 PM said...

Just a side note guys,
If I had never traded futures,options, commodities or traded on margin, I never would have blown up my account. If I traded just stocks with no margin, my account would have seen a 50% drawdown at most, but because I traded futures, I took on more risk. I hope you guys understand the difference between futures and stocks. If you bet wrong on futures you can loss all your money in a day. If ES futures contract margin requirement is 3,000, and you have 3,000 in your account, and you place a wrong trade on ES where it moves 100pts against you, you would lose 5,000,,technically your broker would liquidate your position before your account went negative.
Moral of the story, Leverage, just like Lehman and Bearstearns used, is a double edged sword.

Anonymous said...

hi

can't wait for the education video you promised and we got you back all the time bro...always

tapeworm on 4:31 AM said...

hpt: i've seen pictures...u may not be the best in the world, but ur obviously better than most

i'm working towards getting to the point where i can do 1 one arm pull up...i can see that i'm a long way away...you'll prolly be a millionaire from the futures market b4 i get it

have u thought about porn? i heard DT funded his account by doing some gay stuff...i don't see any reason u should have to do that, but u may have to piss on a few girls along the way

Kos on 1:27 PM said...

Trade 1 contract and develop consistency and self-confidence.

Anonymous said...

The BEST market game is just having a simulated account. Think real hard about what you want to do, because wasting years of your life will come back and haunt you. Being a circus act can't be that rewarding, and a few more thousand dollars makes you no better a person.

Anonymous said...

Seems like a very similar experience to most traders. I am also quite consistent and make steady gains only to set myself back after getting careless and ignoring all of my "funds preservation" rules. I than proceed to kick myself for being so stupid and assure myself I will not ignore my "rules" next time. Next time never seems to come. It definitely takes very strong discipline to stay consistent and to strictly follow rules. Something we all need to continually work on.

HPT on 9:05 PM said...

Anon,
Your pretty critical of everything I type. You say my trading game application I'm making is a waste of time, I'm wasting years of my life trading, and I'm a circus act. Please leave your name next time so I can address. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

chase after your dreams, if it's trading on the market I say screw whatever anyone thinks and just keep fighting for it.

I've enjoyed your blogs, loss or win it's fun to watch someone try instead of wishing I was there.

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