Thursday, April 30, 2009

CNBC Bullishness and Dow/Futures premium

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CNBC is cheerleading the Dow to 10,000 this summer. Nevermind its the last day of April (window dressing) and we have the "Sell in May and go away" theme starting,,,Tomorrow.



It's interesting to note the Premium/Discount in the spread between the Dow Industrial Cash market and the Futures market. The September YM contract is at a 100 pt discount to the Dow cash currently.

Lets see what happens to this Futures Premium Trade in the next month, I expect the two numbers to get closer together, making me money in the process.
Trade setup-
YM Futures Contract- Short June, Long September.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Conspiracy Theory- Was the Swine Flu a Biological weapon intended for an Assassination attempt on President Obama?

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The latest Conspiracy Theory is that the Swine Flu may have been a biological weapon targeted to assassinate President Barack Obama.

Posted by Bloomberg news April 25, 2009-
The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu,

Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.

The Mexican government is distributing breathing masks to curtail the disease’s spread. There is no vaccine against the new strain of swine flu, health authorities said.

Museums, theaters and other venues in the Mexico City area, where large crowds gather, have shut down voluntarily and concerts and other events canceled to help
contain the disease.

Let me get this straight. A guy President Obama shakes hands with, dies the next day. And why is Airforce One flying over Manhatten with no warning to any state authorities or the Mayor. Millions of people were terrified from the site of the 747 flying over the city. You think our government would be a little smarter then to fly over New York without giving a warning to People before hand.

Lean Hogs Limit Down due to Swine Flu Outbreak

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AirForce one Fly's over New York

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Apparently only the FAA knew about the government plan to Fly AirForce One over New York City. Nevermind the millions of people in the City that were scared and ran out of there businesses and left there trading stations as there was a report there was a 747 flying over New York City. Why would AirForce One need a Fighter Jet escort if it was just a "Photo Op" with the Statue of Liberty?
AirForce One is in the Air flying right after the report of the Earthquake in Mexico.
Mayor Bloomberg has every right to be "Furious" over the Fly Over, because no one in New York was informed. Is the government hiding the truth from us? What the hell is going on Today?

Mexico,,get out now

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Its bad enough there is a Flu epidemic in Mexico, but now there are reports of a 6.0 earthquake in Mexico.
Google Interactive Earthquake map.

Google Interactive Swine Flu Map

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Google Interactive Swine Flu Map

Swine Flu Short Squeeze Stocks

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The Yahoo Message Boards are going Nuts for these Stocks Spiking in Price due to the Swine Flu Outbreak.

NVAX

Look at the Volume on NVAX on Friday ahead of the Swine Flu News this weekend - Almost 15 times the usual volume!!!


GNBT

BCRX

AVII

SVA

Swine Flu Pictures

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Found at the CDC Fickr Website-


This 2005 photograph of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Dr. Terrence Tumpey, one of the organization’s staff microbiologists and a member of the National Center for Infectious Diseases (NCID), showed him examining reconstructed 1918 Pandemic Influenza Virus inside a specimen vial containing an orange-colored supernatant culture medium.


A Swine Flu Info Packet

Is the Swine Flu planned by the US government?

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Is this tape real or not? It was posted April 12,2009.

There is another guy saying there are empty trains being stationed out of major cities, but for what reason? Is he a Fear Monger or could this guy be on to something?

Mexican Peso takes a dive & CDC is on Twitter

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CDC on Twitter

US warns of Biological Attack

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This Video is from December 2008.
Make no mistake..... Many countries around the world have had the technology to make biological weapons for years.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Swine Flu Conspiracy Theory

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Update- Was the Swine Flu an Assassination attempt on President Barack Obama?

The media is going crazy with the swine flu news. The media loves to compare every Flu outbreak no matter how small to the Spanish Flu pandemic that killed 40 million people. If you remember back a couple years ago we had the Bird Flue epidemic that had everyone scared but seemed to vanish from the mainstream news after a few months. The bird flu simply didn't go away, there are still cases of this virus infecting humans and killing humans everyday! Now we are all of a sudden hit with a potential pandemic of the Swine Flue Virus as there are cases in Mexico and a number of states in the US. People have died in Mexico, but there are no reported deaths in the US.
How could the US benefit from this "outbreak"?
Could this be a catalyst to further tighten up the US / Mexican Border?
If you remember, just weeks ago President Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton just made special trips to Mexico to help give advice regarding the escalating drug cartels that are causing havoc for the Mexican people and government. The US decided to send a 400 million dollar Aid Package to Mexico in December 2008 to help with the situation.
What has caused more deaths in the last year you ask? Swine flu or deaths related to the Mexican drug cartels?
The Swine Flue has been linked to 81 deaths reported
The Mexican Drug wars has been linked to 6,300 deaths in the year 2008.

Ahead of President Obama visiting Mexico there was a deadly gun battle between drug cartel members and Mexican Soldiers, where 16 people died.

Obama made the decision a month ago not to send US soldiers to help with the situation.
The secretary of homeland secuirity; Janet Napolitan, is the person addressing the US citizens regarding the Swine Flu outbreak and she was also the same person giving press announcements from the white house 1 month ago regarding the escalating violence in Mexico and what the Obama administration plans to do about it.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said the president isn't ready to grant Texas' request for a troop surge to ward off spillover violence.

"There's already a very, very heavy federal presence. We add to it, we target, we dedicate," Napolitano said at the White House, adding that she will meet with Gov. Rick Perry in Texas on Thursday to press for details on his call for 1,000 soldiers or border agents.


I was going to make a post about how this Swine Flu outbreak could affect stocks and Livestock commodities. If you go to the CME website you will see pork bellies and Lean Hogs have retraced and are near monthly lows.




You would expect a pop in some Vaccine related stocks like we saw with the Bird Flu scare a few years ago. The stocks that were affected then if I remember correclty were stocks like GNBT and NVAX. Just remember, it takes months to develop a vaccine. Right now the best anti-viral drug to treat Swine Flue is Tamiflu, made by Roche Pharmaceuticals.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Problems Traders face

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Here's some good reading-

Tradersfeed talks about traders going on tilt- a problem many of us have experienced.

The Traders Narrative explains how to fail at trading in 10 easy steps.

In unrelated news- I'm using imeem to listen to music on my phone and desktop. Imeem lets you listen to artists' albums and has all the songs to each album listed. You can fastforward the song your listening to too.You can listen to any song you want. Just register for free to personalize your music, its awesome. I use to listen to Slacker radio, which by comparison sucks, and I also got tired of searching for artists' songs on youtube and other online radio stations like Pandora which don't give you many options.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Trading Platforms Review

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Richard from Move the Markets does a review on Trading Platforms.

I agree with Richard on NinjaTrader badly needing to upgrade to version 7.0 to have the ability to make indicators based off multiple data series.(ie compare Stocks against each other)

Allthough Quotetracker is free and lacks backtesting abilities, it does allow you to compare different stocks against each other quite easily and making custom indicators via the paintbars is very easy. It is a basic platform and it would be nice if the developers made a pro version that had some more advanced abilities.

Prospectus develops a trade rate indicator which looks very interesting.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Goldman Sachs VS. Joe Blogger

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If you haven't read about the www.goldmansachs666.com debacle, hurry, before the website disappears. That is of course unless Mr. Morgan wins his case against Goldmansachs.

Quick summary- Basically this website came up in March 2009, and this guy is bad mouthing Goldmansachs with some good points along the way.

Zero Hedge, another Trading info outlet is suggesting that Quant Trading is deleveraging as more Quant Funds leave the markets. He also expects a total meltdown in the stock market at any moment primarily due to the bounce in the market occurring from program trading done on "lite volume" (SP 500 is above VWAP by 60pts- and most the gains come via morning gap ups and afternoon rallies), and we will have more bankruptcies and continued economic slump from basically all sectors of the economy but most notably Autos and Financials.

Saturday, April 04, 2009

Is this a JOKE?

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go to www.UGLY.com and where does it re-direct you?

The answer- AIG

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