Friday, December 28, 2007
Traded patiently today-Net P/L= $320 on 5c and 800 shares
I went on vacation this week and came back to trade the last 90 minutes today. My monitors weren't working this morning, so I looked for a solution. I found a Vista 64bit update for my nVidia 8800 GT video card. Hopefully this corrects my monitor problem. I like some of Vista's new applications and features, I just need to make sure my monitors work or else VISTA is going to start costing me money by not allowing me to trade.
As soon as I get my computer working,, maybe I can log into my broker and short MSFT,,
probably some time next year the way things are going....
The security warnings are annoying.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
TraderGav- A long time blogging trader, TraderGav is back to trading Currencies, after previously trading other instruments such as stocks and futures. He's also made a challenge for himself to double 13k with prospects of reaching 100k in the long run.(Currently 3.42% of the way there)
Timothy Sykes- The Trader that turned 12k to 1.65mil that you love to hate, you dread to see on discussion forums such as EliteTrader, can't bear to watch on CNBC, and who recently wrote his own book; An American Hedge Fund. What's interesting this time is that Timothy has a new challenge to turn 12k into that same 1.65mil, but in 10years time being more conservative. I'll be keeping an eye on him and TraderGav to see who doubles there account first.
Kevin's Market blog- Gives good Technical Analysis of various sectors and commodities and shows us some charts.
Stock Day Trading- Chris gives us his daily trades with excellent charts, win loss ratio, and talks about some trader psychology. He looks to be a QuoteTracker user and trades MORNING GAP PLAYS, DUMMY TRADES, and some other setups as explained in his Trade Setups.
Check back next time for some more Trader Links........
Friday, December 21, 2007
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
I'm TRADIN on TWO,22's,,,Intel Quad processor,,8800 GTS Video Card,,Vista Ultimate 64bit,,, IT'S SWEET!!
I'm going to try to make a video once I get all the software loaded.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Net P/L= $414 on 15c and 400 shares
Chart of March ES (SP500) futures Contract
Short term 3 month bill yields dipped last week, while the rest of the longer term bonds didn't follow to the downside as would be expected with another 25bp cut, meaning the interest rate cut was already weighted into bond futures going into the FOMC announcement. The yield on the 10 yr last week closed at 4.23%. I think Yields will be going down this week or stay flat. I've noticed as yields go down (bond futures up), you tend to see stocks go down as well.
Chart of March 10 yr bond futures contract
Overall, bullish on ZN, and bearish on ES. I could be totally wrong though, as some might see stocks a little "oversold" going into this week.
Friday, December 14, 2007
I Was up 6 bills in the first hour, then started breaking rules and ended up down 1k.I caught the morning rally, pushed by Citigroup and financials. I then thought it was overdone and tried shorting. I quickly lost my money I made by getting stopped out of my short.
Then the worst thing that happened,,REVENGE TRADING,,,I WANT MY MONEY BACK!! I BROKE THE RULES,,AS USUAL....The market reversed and I tried going long, because I had already tried going short. I lost a ton of money averaging into a crappy long on ER2. I got fed up with the long, realized I was on the wrong side, because my system never once gave a long signal all day, and I went short. I recouped from my big drawdown and ended with about a 1k loss. Had I held my position from where I reversed short, I would have made a few grand, however, I started getting fancy with trailing stops, and adding to position at price peaks, and I ended up with a loss for the day. At least it wasn't a huge blowup.
I can't wait to get back into the markets next week and start trading and folowing my rules, almost done with finals and having all this studying behind me. For the week, I still was able to make $2,700, which is the main thing keeping me in a good mood after screwing myself over today.
PS- DT, keep your chin up bro, this week was tough.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Labels: Futures Rollover
Today was Choppy for the time I traded, which is to be expected after the last 2 days of market volatility. I got 2 good scalps on ER2 from my trade signals, and I took a few discretionary scalps on crude oil, USO, and XLE. I'm quiting early to study for school FINALS.
Net P/L= $325 on 6c and 1800 shares.
ATTENTION FUTURES TRADERS- REMEMBER TO ROLL OVER to MARCH CONTRACT (December contracts expire soon and liquidity is greater on the March contract now)
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Jessica Alba is pregnant. Expect VIAB (viacom) stock to tank.
I played CALL OF DUTY 4 on PS3 this weekend and beat it in about 8 hours. The Game is Bas Ass. Expect ATVI (Activision) to continue higher.
The Day after FOMC the market opens with a huge gap up after a selloff on yesterdays 25bp interest rate cut. The market then travels back to the previous days low , selling off almost all day.
Besides churning through 108 contracts on NQ, I did good today. My loss on NQ was due to using bad trade management and adding to the position with stops that were at price spikes and by lowering my sell stop when the market turned bearish in the afternoon. My initial trade entry on NQ would have been a good winner if I had used the correct position sizing an added to the position correctly. Adding to positions is my biggest challenge as a trader. I need to stick to my signals and work on position sizing rules.
Net P/L= $627 (127c and 800 shares)
1.While typing this I missed a sell signal on ES, however, after seeing this I saw another good scalp and got an extra $200 by staying focused and getting a long scalp on ER2 and a short scalp on NQ.
2.Should have held short on CL, sold the high at $94.56 and only took 20cents, it is 75cents my way right now if I had held, or an extra 1k lost(the profit was decent so I took it,,IDIOT, just like yesterday, should have waited for the reversal signal.)
3.Should have reversed and went short on NQ after I got stopped out.(that huge spike down on NYSE A/D is not very common, however is not unusual being the day after FOMC, the type of volatility and crazy action I was expecting yesterday)
Rules I need to work on-
1.Keep taking trade signals until the last 30min of market open.
2.Look for exit signals and use trailing stops logically
3.Keep your stops(don't move them from that impeding spike)
4.Turn on audible alerts
5.Eat breakfast before trading
6.Get at least 7 hours of sleep (got 3hr last night)
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
I was short pre-FOMC announcement. And it payed off. However I lost a potential $5-10k, by having pre-set BUY limit orders. I didn't expect ER2 to move down 18pts so quickly. I should have held onto some contracts. However, I'm just glad the day is over, because I was trading like crap before the announcement, and FOMC days are tricky to trade, so I've decided to stop trading and lock in my profits.
Net P/L= $2,500 on 28c and 700 shares
I'm so dissappointed I didn't hold that trade, $10-20k opportunity thrown down the drawn from not following trade signals. Who would've thought the market was going to tank this hard. Dam it.
F@#K YOU MR. MARKET.
Monday, December 10, 2007
I knew today was going to be slow and choppy with the FOMC announcement tomorrow.
I traded light and waited for decent setups. I took a little too much heat on my FXI trade, but overall the market was beginning to weaken at the time of its pop (FXI was below VWMA and has had a negative bias the last few days, so I figured it was just short covering), so I held the short and covered near the LOD. I used a limit order to Cover for 1pt on my ER2 short trade after I got a weak buy signal. I should have re-entered the short because I got another sell signal minutes later.
Net P/L= $206 on 7 contracts and 200 shares
Tomorrow I'm not expecting much volatility from the FOMC interest rate decision. The market seems really quiet the last few weeks. The Bond Futures are holding flat ahead of the FOMC announcement after taking a big dive on Friday.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Laugh all you want at the P/L, I'm just glad I'm breakeven for the day.
Traded terribly today,due to over leverage, and not using tight enough stops at volatility spikes. I'm thankful to even be in the black today, because I went well over my loss limits due to my own intuition telling me otherwise(thinking ZN would reverse sharply and ES would reverse accordingly). It did work out, but I should have kept size down and exited at price extremes.
Net P/L= $7 on 87c (terrible) I'm just glad I'm out and done for the day
Overall, the market is trading on really light volume and is dangerous IMO. ES just held 1510 for the longest time while XLF and C were rolling over, finally I got my break for my short when ZN popped, and I got back to break even for the day. Something that made trading very difficult today, was seeing BOND FUTURES TANK HARD, as a result of the mortgage interest rate bailout and bond traders selling. ZN just kept going down, with the 10yr hitting November lows. BOND TICKER has been giving a good summary of the action-
11:08 am - Taking Hits: Prices have been held lower as the market took its 1st hit on the better-than-expected payrolls report, although the much hyped ADP reports 189K guess was well off the mark, while mixed back end revisions also weighed. An uptick in inflation concerns is also hitting the longer end, taking the 10-yrs off to the worst levels since mid-Nov while the shorter maturities have only hit Nov 30 levels. Traders report very light action & the typical drop-off in options volitility levels -post-payrolls. The dollar is still mostly lower against the majors but still bettering the yen as the currency suffers in carry trade.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Well today's review can be summed up in 2 words- Missed Trade.
I didn't take a lot of signals today, due to getting chopped up trading the dull drums. I didn't take advantage of the afternoon rally because I was trying to manage a small short position in C (bad trade), and having that one stock position tied up my focus on what the indices and the whole market was doing as a whole, and as a result, I missed the boat to the bull rally. NYSE A/D was above 2 all day, clearly a day to look for long signals. This should be the #1 factor in deciding your stock trading setups, and I myself messed up by not going long. About the time I made the post about CROX tanking,,the stock reversed and rallied $3.00 into the close. I missed the boat on that stock even though I got a buy setup. The market rallying 2 days in a row like this isn't what I was expecting today. I thought traders would have already factored in "the NEWS". There are some huge short coverings taking place in home builders today and mortgage related stocks.
Net P/L= $320 on 38c and 3300 shares (crappy profit to contract ration)
I placed a SHORT LIMIT ORDER on SOLF at 24.29 for 200 shares, and got filled for 5 shares. WTF is that? I add 100 shares to the crappy fill and covered around 23.54. Right now I'm just looking for trade setups. This market is very choppy right now.
This is a CHINA based SOLAR COMPANY, that is using NANOTECHNOLOGY, to create the most advanced SOLAR products ever. On top of that, this company just went public and very few people know about this rare opportunity to buy the stock. The ticker symbol is SHET....also listed on the LONDON stock exchange under CRAP....and listed as TERD under the shanghai exchange. Please act now, because if oil goes up another cent you will be sorry you weren't invested in this CHINA NANOTECHNOLOGY based SOLAR company.
Will people please get off the whole SOLAR HYPE. The SUN wasn't invented yesterday, and the last time I checked people were still driving GAS based vehicles. Telerium? WHAT? I bet AL GORE has an all time fan base right now, and more people than ever are concerned about Gas Prices. What's the publics way of dealing with high gas prices? LOOK TO BUY ALTERNATIVES. Buy useless solar companies that they think are going to be profitable, because if oil goes any higher, the whole world is going to switch to solar, LIKE TOMORROW, and you will be rich from buying XYZ solar company.
The question is, do stocks rally tomorrow?
It seems to me this news was already priced in. California was the first to take action on the housing mess, then Hillary threw up her arms a few weeks later and talked to BUSH about holding rates steady until the turmoil had passed. Finally PAULSON and BUSH are taking action on the housing mess, but has the damage already been done? Certainly there are some P-ED of people that wish they could've got those teaser rates on their mortgages. I'm glad that BUSH is taking action. This may benefit the US economy and prevent something worse from happening.
Do we need to cut interest rates again? What for? With BUSH intervention on the housing mess, is there really any need? We already got the big write downs from all the major US banks. Cut interest rates again?
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
From Ebay- Intel Core 2 Quad Q6600 Raid Ready Mini System w/8800GT video card (512mb), 4GB DDR2 memory, and 640GB hard drive, all in a pretty case. Add in Windows Vista Ultimate and I'm looking at $1,500, not including a new monitor.
I might change my mind and get this one though- GAMING COMPUTER WITH QUAD CORE+ NEWEST 8800GT 512MB
If anyone has any better ideas, let me know, I'm buying tomorrow.
Traded much better today. Focused on not adding to losers, and waiting for trade setups. Much better profit to contract ratio today. Once I hit $500, I went into profit protection mode and switched to trading IWM and NQ instead of ER2(so my leverage was reduced and I could scale into trades without having to take as much heat).
NET P/L= $704 on 37c and 5,499 shares
I went short first on XOM in the AM because I saw relative weakness in the oil sector compared to the other sectors, however this trade wasn't smart in retrospect at the time, because NYSE A/D was above 3 and XOM was above VWMA. I should have looked for a long in financials or tech in the AM. I got a small profit on XOM in the AM by using good position sizing and then it wasn't until the afternoon (after the bond reaction to NBI) that I got a good short setup on ER2. After that I scaled back position size and scalped IWM and NQ. I didn't trade the last hour, as I normally try to avoid this time period even though it can be quite volatile.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Considering I missed the first 3 hours of trading, I faired OK trading the CHOP-FEST.
I almost got myself into a bind, because I was loading up short ER2 at the close because ZN was rallying, but ER2 just kept crawling higher from weak short covering. Thankfully the inverse relationship panned out and I was able to cash in.
Overall, trading the stock index futures was tough today, which is reason for me to start scanning for stocks IN PLAY if this choppy action continues. Tomorrow brings a number of reports coming out in the AM, which should hopefully bring some volatility back for us Day Traders, as DINO has already noted on his blog as well.
P/L= $525 on 87 ER2 contracts and 800 shares
I'm looking for a new CPU, as some of you noticed my system dates back to the times of the great Dinosaur, so its time to update, and I want some feedback in picking my system.
Cost- Keep it between $500-1,000
Processor- Intel Core 2, Quad, or AMD x2 64, or the new quad phenom
Ram- minimum 2GB DDR2, between 2-4GB ideal
Hard drive- Preferably 250GB-500GB, with at least 8mg cache
Video Card- Needs to be dual head- preferably Nividia brand and minimum 512mb
Operating System- Doesn't matter, People say XP is still faster until the next Vista update comes out, but buying the "backbones" without an OS installed is an option that will save money.
What I'm looking at-
Fry's: $499- HP a6177c Refurbished (Intel® Core™ 2 Duo Processor E6550, 2GB, 400GB, Vista Premium)
ebaY: $659- Intel Quad Core Q6600 Custom Gaming PC System, 3 year warranty, DVDRW, 2GB DDR2, 320GB HDD, GeForce
eCost: $849- 2.4GHz Intel® Core™ 2 Quad Q6600, 3GB RAM, 640GB Hard Drive, Dual Layer DVD±RW, HD DVD-ROM, Wireless LAN 802.11 b/g, GeForce 8400GS, TV Tuner Card w/ FM Tuner, Windows Vista™ Home Premium (HP Recertified Model)
ebaY: $948- AMD QUAD CORE PHENOM 9500/ 4GB DDR-2/500GB HDD 512MB 8500GT / 20X DVD-RW/BRAND NEW/3 - YEAR WARRANTY
I would prefer to go to a store and buy it, such as buying a refurbished model from Fry's, but I'm looking into buying one online if the deal is good enough.
Please leave your comments on which one you think I should get, or if you find something better below $1,000, leave me a comment. THANKS!
After I get a new CPU, I'll be looking to get some new monitors.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Pretty crazy stuff,,,,,,the guy isn't even phased.
I wonder if gas prices being at all time highs' has anything to do with this.
A slightly different version of Rhianna's "Umbrella" hit song.
RON PAUL endorsed by the BUNNY RANCH
Didn't do any real trading today as I'm working on my system.
$13 on 200 shares (100share winner short on C and 100 share B.E. Buy on XLE)
Attention Futures traders- It's time to rollover Bond futures contracts to MARCH (ZN,ZF,ZB,) because DEC has lost volume and is going to expire soon. Watch for Stock index futures rollover later this month too.
Daily ES chart-
I'm TRADING FROM A LAZY BOY NOW..........OH,,,,,YEAH!!!!!!
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Geico's Caveman, so popular they made a TV show-
I haven't seen this commercial before, maybe it was too cruel to animals to televise in the states.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Labels: Reflection Time
Reflecting on these acts as a good motivation tool for me, and that is why I have put them in my journal.
I'll also leave you this link to Tradersfeed- Seven (Questionable) Things I Hear From Traders, it's another great post by the Doc.
My passion is not to trade...My passion is to make as much money as I can...
If I could make $1,000-$2,000 a day shoveling elephant Poop I would do it over trading.
You could say I shovel poop for a living, but I'm still rich and the job is easy. Having a bad smell on me when I get home is something I'm willing to accept.
Trading just happens to be a way to make a lot of money, and it has been my focus for the last 2 years. Losing is the hardest thing I have had to face, and failure to except losses has slowed the progression of my account. I've had many blow ups, and many good months of profits, and along the way I have learned a great deal about who I am, and what I'm capable of if I put my full effort into it. The key is setting goals, making a plan, and staying focused on your path. There are some psychological impediments I've faced along the way in my trading career, such as taking a loss, getting past a certain value in my account, and making X amounts of dollars in a day. I plan on continuing my trading career and putting more effort into making money because I believe I have an edge, I believe I have a strategy that is profitable when backtested, and I believe in myself. There have been a number of times I ALMOST GAVE UP TRADING, but yet I'm still here, and I'm producing results, because the passion to make money is still there and won't be going away for awhile.
Now who comes up with better topic headings than ME?
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Labels: Good Day
Traded 2 hours in the afternoon.
Waited for Trade signals, stuck to my Plan, used stops, made Money, had a good day.
PL $1,200 on 88c and 1700 shares Trading AAPL.
IB's got a relatively new feature where you can look up individual stock/futures contracts you traded for the day.
Here's an example of my YM Trades-
Checkout the Short Squeeze Momentum Stock FSLR-
It was clear that most of the Rep.'s were against Ron Paul's standings, especially McCain.
See More questions asked by going to youtube Republican Debate
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
I traded sub-par today and overused my leverage, but came out ahead for the 3 hours I traded.
P/L= $600 on 56c
Winning trades on ER2 and 1 loser on ZG, stopped out right before it rolled over hard.
ZG- Trade Stopped out
ER2 and internals charts-
Time to work on my strategy now.
Monday, November 26, 2007
From AP- Abu Dhabi's Sovereign Fund Agrees to Invest $7.5 Billion for a 4.9 Percent Stake in Citigroup.(Monday November 26,11:51 pm ET, Joseph Altman, AP Business Writer)
Labels: Trading Blogs
10kThrownAway-2 Brotheres Day Trading there way to financial freedom giving daily analysis of there trades, dollar P/L, market summary, and charts.(They trade both futures and stocks and began fulltime trading
00NR7- A Fellow IB user that day trades stocks and gives his trades, charts, and gives his profit/loss as a R multiple instead of an actual dollar amount. (checkout TraderMikes article on R-Multiples)
Stock Hunter- A fellow QuoteTracker user that day trades stocks and gives his trades, charts, and gives his profit/loss as a R multiple.
DayTrade-Emini- A new Futures Trader that posts his Day Trade analysis, P/L, and charts.(No one likes his Avatar, especially DINO, who is back to trading today).
AlphaTrends- Trading Recap Videos shared daily by John giving us Technical Analysis of whats happening in the markets.
MadStocks- The blog authored by the infamous Rajin Cajun gives his daily trades, charts, and opinion on stocks and the market.(Rajin Cajun also contributes to the Peanut Gallery over at the FLY's new website- iBankCoin.com)
Stock Trading Charts- A static website where High Probability Trader displays all his charts using Picasa as shown below.
(If you got a cool trading blog leave a comment and I'll check you out)
Labels: Dr. Steenbarger
Yahoo Finance has a Poll out-
Are Financial Stocks Oversold?
I voted yes.............
The Dow is putting in another big loss
for the day, and the prospects of a
"Santa Rally" are dimming.
In other News-
Dr. Steenbarger; for Tradersfeed, reflects on his MOST DEPRESSING LOSS, and how he made it a turning point in his life.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Labels: To Do List
My To Do List-
Create more blogs
Create more blog templates
Finalize strategy rules
Work on adding ads to blogs
Work on Paintbar audible alerts
Work on chart indicators
Review Sector Trend stock strategy
Get faster computer
Share more videos and pictures
Increase site traffic
Learn how to create a better webpage
Work on Financial goals
Eat less Cereal
Work on Arms and Chest next time at the gym
Do homework by Sunday night
Setup Camtasia recorder to start recording trading
Search for best computer
Eat more protein
Prepare for class speech
Get Oil change
Read current Book about FOMC
Spend more time learning Visual Studio and C#
Things you wont find on my To Do List
Work on my Moving avg Crossover technique
Search for Penny stocks getting ready to explode
Buy Penis Enlarger Pills
Cash in my Winning Lottery ticket from Africa
Read THE FLY's new Blog
Spend time on MySpace.com looking for new friends
Checkout Hillary Clinton's Presidential website
Checkout the latest posts at EliteTrader
I've been really wanting to have a 3 column design, so I learned how to do it.I put my official Copyright on it as well, so don't be getting any clever ideas.
I can tell OBAT isn't feeling my patriotic theme, so I'll substitute the white background for gray.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Do we really need reasons when we got pictures like this?
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Labels: Timothy Sykes
This video is pretty funny. The guy may look like an idiot, but there is an old saying, that even bad publicity is good. He's getting more attention, and for some reason, I bet he's making more money. He's actually has some good stock picks. Some say he has a gambling approach to trading, but what is trading all about anyway.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Optionistics.com.-You can test out how different option strategies would work out (the analyzer gives you option prices from 3 weeks ago, so you can see how the strategy would have worked out today)
1Option,- There have been some insightful posts on option trading at this website, for example I was thinking of a strategy of buying a CALL LEAP on a stock I like such as RIO, and writing front month CALLs at the money for the duration of the period that I own the LEAP, a strategy similar to a COVERED CALL STRATEGY, except less capital is needed because the LEAP acts similar to buying the stock outright because time decay(theta), is less of a factor, making this a DIAGONAL SPREAD.
EFP's,- I've been reading about EFP's, as a way to beat current interest rates that my broker offers
EliteTrader Disscussion on EFP's and the what to do about the 1st 10k that doesn't receive interest.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Note- this video may be offensive and is not for children.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Friday, November 16, 2007
That's what's going on in this market right now.
Monthly recap,,,the BEARS won this month, and I expect the Bulls to begin to show signs of life next week, considering OPEX has passed. Thanksgiving week can be quite volatile, so be careful with position size next week. I've been spending time working on my trade strategy, and also looking at stocks to trade.
Jeffersons got a new Mac kid video up-
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
That's all from me for now.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Labels: Trader Hall of Fame
A new feature of this Blog that I will be writing about often will be to highlight "TOP TRADERS" I've discovered and to tell a little about these traders and how they are successful.
The First TOP PROFESSIONAL TRADER going down in the books is-
M.A. Perry; (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) at forums like EliteTrader.com and TradersLaboratory.com
Perry is a Fulltime FUTURES TRADER.
Academic Background: Microbiology, Immunology and a med-school drop-out in the 80's to become a full-time trader...He says he's "never regretted the decision."
Location- Provinde du Quebec, where he speaks English and French.
Trading Experience- Fulltime tader for ~20 years, with 30 years of studying the markets.
Perry's Trade Methodology-
I'm a price action only trader (no indicators) via rule based methodology involving day trading, swing trading and position trading.
Just as important, the foundation of my strategies are via volatility analysis, market seasonal tendencies (cycles), intraday market tendencies, intermarket analysis, support/resistance analysis and the psychological aspects of trading.
He uses an emergency fixed hard stop and a variable mental stop that doesn't exceed a particular number that's much less than the hard stop. Average position size is around 3 contracts, but this can change depending on market volatility.
He can trade profitably almost any futures trading instrument, exchange traded fund or forex currency, however, he currently mainly trades the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures contract while keeping a close eye on other key market trading instruments.
His favorite trading instruments are the Eurex DAX and EuroFX EC but he's unable to trade those due to family restrictions.
I asked Perry how he became so consistent as a Futures trader and this was is reply-
To continue reading please go to Trader Hall of Fame
(Please note, High Probability Trading has no affiliations with M.A. Perry)
(If you think you have what it takes to be in the Trader Hall of Fame email me)
Friday, November 09, 2007
Today I traded much better, scalping good chunks out of ER2, YM, and ZF on 1-2 contracts.
I waited for my trade signals and I told myself I wouldn't add to losers with more than 2 contracts total (a risk management strategy I use to apply when I was trading smarter).
There was an interesting relationship between the 30yr and 2yr bond futures this morning. Instead of ZF leading to the upside, ZB was leading. I watched for bearish divergences between ZF and ZB to take short trades on ZF back down to VAL/POC value areas.
I watched for bullish climax points in the bond futures(ZB/ZF) and waited for the inverse trade signals on ER2 and YM to take mostly long scalps. (intermarket relationship) I also noticed a BID on NQ around 2055 and resistance on ZB around 8:15am. I also notice a tendency for climax points on Fridays to be around the 8am hour, which may have relevance considering the overseas markets close at 8am and because bond futures have a shortened trading day on Fridays.
Thanks to StockHunter for the comment which included the link to this great article on Risk Management which I read last night.
Thursday, November 08, 2007
How are American Senior Citizens suppose to live with rising inflation and medical costs.
I feel bad for Bernanke, what do you expect him to say?
Honestly, what's Ron Pauls' plan,,,,get rid of the FOMC, IRS, abolish taxes, and bring the soldiers home......That seems like a fairy tale if you asked me.
Labels: Bernanke, bonds, Reversal Day, Time reversals, Trading Blow Up
Well that would have been today's headline if my prayers from the 12-0-clock reversal GODS didn't come true. I would like to thank the Traders in Citigroup and Maria Bartiroma for the last hour BUY programs that saved my ass.
Honestly, I shorted ZB twice today, getting a good winner on both.
On ER2 I went long from a BUY STOP getting hit right after the Bernanke speech(it was the high of the day before the huge selloff, my buy stop got hit 3 ticks out of the money and was red 7 ticks in seconds.....). I ended up adding to that long,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,for a long,,,,,,,,,time. I admit, today I SCREWED UP BIG TIME.
I held my long on ER2 through the lows, while watching bond futures hit resistance during the mid-day,,,,which helped me UNDERTAKE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF PAIN as I watched my account take a STAGGERING HIT.
As my pain an suffering were at a threshold of around 8.5,,, I got software issues from IB. Thank you IB, for having another SPOOKY malfuncitoning,,,you guessed it, right around at the LOWS OF THE DAY.....Look at my workstation.............WTF?????????
(think to yourself, don't panic, this market will reverse.........)
If things couldn't get any worse I was getting calls from work, wanting me to come to work today because someone called out sick.....Meanwhile......
I left my account alone while we continued lower. I listened to the family members in my house argue about how the internet connection had stopped working,,,,that really got me stressing, however during the argument, I kept hearing in the conversation "just be patient with it, the internet connection will come back up", ,,,,,,,,,and that is what I did with my position, I was patient with it, and I let it come back up.
$1,300 on 60 contracts
I'm going to do some hard analysis of what would have occurred today if I had followed my trade signals. I'm sure the readers are just as disgusted as I am with reading how I almost screwed up big time today. I said in the past that I wouldn't let this happen. I blame it on my old intuition trades and not following the trading signals. Maybe today will be the last day I let this happen, I don't know, but I sure hope it is.
Now I'm off to the library to study for a test later this afternoon. My stomach feels bad and I'm light headed,,,time for some caffeine......
The highlights so far-
Question- "what are the odds of a recession on a scale of 1 to 10?"
Ben- "Economists aren't good at forecasting,,,,,,,,I'm not answering that question"
NQ is leading to the downside, ER2 showing more support.
XLE and oil related stocks are strongest, XLF and financials suck as usual.
RON PAUL just layed the SMACK DOWN ON BERNANKE!!
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Todays breaking news at the bottom of the screen highlighted in RED is that the Dow has switched back and forth from a positive to negative bias the last 8 sessions. If the $100 OIL wasn't hyped enough as a COOL headline, this serves as second best.
Rick Santeli is the only guy worth listening to, and he talks about bonds and what's really going on from a traders point of view. The Dow was down over 240pts today yet, the 10yr and 30yr haven't followed their typical pattern. Now they have CRAMER on CNBC screaming about something random that pisses him off, this is another great BUY SIGNAL.
13week flight to safety with 30year yields going up?
If I were a short term swing trader I would BUY THIS DIP in STOCKS.
GOODLUCK TRADING THIS-
Monday, November 05, 2007
I'm watching for a bounce in bond yields tomorrow, and for ZN to go DOWN....
that is unless XLF totally melts down and brings another huge drop to the stock market due to all the US banks like Citigroup SUCKING!!!!
Stocks I'm researching-
TIP, SHY, BIL, GSG, DBC, FXA, EWA, FXI, and PTR.
I'm testing out this cool new Widget from adaptive blue. This is really COOL!