Thursday, December 31, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
Trades Page 1
Trades Page 2
Today I prefered to take trade setups in currencies and commodity related futures contracts because of the increased volatility and volume.
Highlights of the day-
EURO/AUSSIE and Stocks bearish at open. Bullish divergence on Dow vs Nasdaq. Real estate sector trending in afternoon. Gold and Crude continue to have good volatility.
The stock market has been tightening into a range and volume has been decreasing the last couple weeks, so there are less setups to be found. Off the open I noticed the Euro broke 1.468 and was trending down, so I knew there would be a good chance that US stocks would follow and catchup.Also, the European stock market close (last 30minutes) has had a tendency to selloff the last few weeks.
1.Short near the open after signal (Reason- Euro/SMH/AAPL weakness)- Winner
2.Long near lows off signal (Euro support/bounce)- Loser
3.Short off signal - Winner
4.Short off signal - Winner
1. I should have held my first short of the day and looked for selling at the European close.
2. I attempted to pick the bottom on NQ @ 1786.5 but was stopped out. I should have averaged in on that trade using less leverage by going long QQQQ or DIA in hindsight.
1.Short near the open (Reason- Crude/Euro/XLE weakness)- Winner
2.Long- midday (Reason- Crude/XLE support/bounce)- Winner
Euro - Winner
1.Long scalp near the European stock market close (Reason oversold/support)- Winner
Euro thoughts- After getting stopped out on NQ, I was still convinced there was support and bullish divergence on the Euro, so I entered long 6E (Euro futures), the trade took awhile and I entered a second contract when I was up 10 ticks. I scaled out at my targets while at the same time scaling out of my Gold long.
AIG - Breakeven
1.Short - Averaged into Breakeven (should have Scaled out on dip)
1.Short (Reason -Tech/SMH weakness/ at PIVOT) - I should have used a tighter stop and taken a loss instead of averaging into this trade. Trade was a winner
1.Long (Reason- Pivot/Euro support/bounce) - Winner
GLD thoughts- I decided to scale into the Gold etf (GLD) instead of the Gold futures contract (GC) because I wanted to take on less risk due to the increased volatility and my entry was essentially an attempt at picking a bottom based off Euro Support (confidence was 70% on this trade). I later exited for a profit when the Euro bounced.
1.Long (Reason- relative strength, but bad timing) - Loser
2.Short - Averaged a short position for the most of the day (I may have held a bias to the short side after being stopped out earlier on my long earlier in the day, overall, a bad trade on a trending stock) - Loser
IYR Trend chart
SMH - Loser
1.Short -(Reason- NQ/Tech/AAPL weakness)- Should have scaled out on dip, bad entry/exit- Loser
Thursday, December 10, 2009
I noticed relative strength and momentum in AMZN so I took a long on it initially and then a short later on when I got a sell signal on the ES.
$70 was good suppoert/pivot on Crude, and the Euro was also looking to bounce, so I got a quick scalp on QM. ( I traded QM over CL today because I wanted to reduce my risk today on account of the lighter trading volume)
I took trades in XLE to the Long side when I noticed Crude was setup to bounce.
Goldman Sachs - Stock of the day
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
IB YM Trades
IB EURO Trades
IB NQ Trades
IB Gold Trades
QT Full YM chart
Tradestation YM Trades
Tradestation FULL CHART
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Friday, November 13, 2009
Labels: Trading Blogs
These Traders post there trades or P/L each day they trade-
TraderAM - He Trades Morning opening GAPS
PRD Trader - He trades Forex pairs and has set a Million dollar challenge for his 20K account
A list of US index Futures Traders that post daily P/L-
Jay's Futures Trading Journal
Other Worthwhile Blogs-
Capital is Scarce- By Trader Solfest - Trades Crude Oil
Long & Wrong - Index Analysis and stuff
For more Trading Blogs Checkout Market Roll
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Trading Psychology and Common Problems for Traders
Traders - What's the Squeeze Play?
Trading Expert Explains Intermarket Relationships
Wayne McDonell Discusses How to Benefit from the Carry Trade
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Labels: interactive brokers
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Labels: Dr. Steenbarger
Dr. Brett goes over A Few Trading Psychology Observations
I'd like to highlight a few key points I like from his post-
- Traders develop plans and trade patterns that simply don't work; they're based on randomness.
- 90% don't/can't sustain the process of keeping a substantive journal. Among the group that does journal, well over 90% of the entries are about themselves and their P/L. I almost never see journal entries devoted to figuring out markets.
-In every performance field of note--from Olympic athletics to Broadway--performers spend more time in practice than in formal performance. That is how expertise develops. The ratio of "practice" time (time spent on markets outside of trading) to trading time is a worthwhile indicator of a trader's prospective success.
-"It's a common observation that traders fail because they don't stick to their plans. My experience is different. Traders develop plans and trade patterns that simply don't work; they're based on randomness. When the patterns don't work, traders become frustrated and abandon their plans. So it looks like lack of discipline causes trading failure. But planning doesn't create success; sound planning does. Sticking to plans based on randomness is no virtue."
How do traders enhance there trading skills while the market is closed?
-Back Test your strategies (are these strategies profitable?)
-Review your charts and setups (Are you taking Impulse/emotional trades or backtested planned trades?)
-Review your past trades, look at trade frequency, share size, max drawdown, max gain
-Review the trading day with tick replay feature if your charting software provides that feature
-Trade on a trading simulator if your broker has that feature
-Review your trading journal to find trading mistakes you keep making, so you can focus on improving those problem areas
-Record the Trading day and review it later using screen capture software like Camtasia studio or !Quick Screen Capture
Denial as a Trading Motivation
Trading on Tilt: Regaining Self Control
Friday, September 25, 2009
Labels: ATS Trade Statistics
I'm still working on my ATS. I plan on posting its results on my blog on a regular basis to give this blog more content and help me track its progress.
I have the ATS sending orders to an Interactive Brokers Simulated Account.
Today I took the same trade that the ATS fired and it worked.
I am still working on this ATS for trading NQ.
The ATS only signaled 1 trade today. A 2pt set stop and 3 pt target we're fixed in place. I manually adjusted the stop down and the stop was hit for 1.5pt profit. The trade statistics can be seen in the picture.
I think I will provide a full view of the ATS trade statistics for all the trades taken at the end of the trading week/month and put these results in an EXCEL/ GOOGLE Pivot table as shown below. Perhaps when I accumulate more statistics on the trading I will provide a chart of the P/L performance along with the corresponding trade statistics. I love Pivot tables.
HPT ATS TRADE STATISTICS
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Make a copy of the entire QuoteTracker folder, not just the stocks.exe file. (Ex. If your current folder for QT is "c:\program files\quotetracker" make a folder "c:\program files\quotetracker2" (or whatever)). Then copy the entire contents of the "c:\program files\quotetracker" folder (including sub-folders) into the "c:\program files\quotetracker2" folder.
After that, make a shortcut to the stocks.exe file in the new c:\program files\quotetracker2 folder. Your original shortcut should point to "c:\program files\quotetracker\stocks.exe" and the new shortcut should point to "c:\program files\quotetracker2\stocks.exe"
Both of these shortcuts now need the "allowdup" command line argument added to them in the Target box, so that they will look like this:
"c:\program files\quotetracker\stocks.exe" allowdup
"c:\program files\quotetracker2\stocks.exe" allowdup
(Note: allowdup is outside of the quotes and there is a space before it.)
After that final step, you can double click the 2 shortcuts and each will start a separate instance of QT.
For more answers to FAQ go to the QT forum.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Here are the key topics Jeff suggests and my answers:
Which contract or stock will I trade?
I'm trading stocks and futures.
What time period will I trade?
I trade the first 3 hours of market open primarily, while liquidity is best.
What setups will I take?
I discretionary trade the automated signals I have created. I determine if the current market condition suites any trade signals my system generates and then I choose whether or not to take the trade.
What Risk parameters do I use?
I have a max daily stop loss in place in case I make too many bad trades.
What do I do after 3 losing trades?
I determine if I should stop trading based on if I'm feeling frustrated or if I should keep trading my signals until my daily max loss is reached.
What is my strategy for increasing or decreasing my trading size?
I trade 1-2 contracts for the initial position and only add to winners on clear trending trades (market internals heavily favor bulls/bears -ie TICK and NYSE A/D favor bulls/bears).
How many ticks or points am I trying to make per day?
I don't have a set target, I only take what I can get.
How many trades do I make per day?
I only make 3 to 5 trades per day on average. Most trading days only make 3 significant swings, so my primary goal is to be apart of the primary move or catch a reversal swing or continuation trade.
How long do I plan to hold winners or losers?
I hold winners as long as possible, scaling out as I see fit. I hold losers for as long as I need to as long as my stop is not hit.
How do I record my progress?
I keep a journal of my trades with trade statistics and a chart showing where I placed my trades.
Who do I call if my computer or internet has a problem?
I have stops in place for all my trades so I'm covered, however I can also access my account from my phone or call my broker.
Thursday, September 03, 2009
Gold is nearing 1000, JPY is the most bullish currency, the Canadian dollar and Peso are weakest currencies. Bond futures (ZN -10 yr bond future) has good correlation with JPY lately. ES and Crude correlation has also been good lately.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Labels: ES, market reversal, market selloff day, Trend day, volume profile
Today was a Double distribution trend day, characterized by two volume nodes and the session ending near its high/low.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
Labels: Weekend Links
Economic Data Blog
Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break From Mish Econ Analysis
Bubble Meter -A housing bubble blog
The math of gambling From NewScientist
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Monday, August 03, 2009
Labels: Trading Blogs
I was just reading an old blog that several of us older traders collaborated on, called the TRADING AXIOM, and I was surprised at how good some of the posts were.
I'm not sure where the trading Axiom traders all went(Prospectus, LP, and where is Mr White Folks?), but if you are out there, leave me a comment, I'd like to know how your doing.(I know prospectus quit, but still wondering what he's up to).
I think many would like to know how Traders Bubs, and the 2 guys at 10k thrown away are doing since going away last year.Even though these guys may not be trading, I'd still like to hear how they are doing. There are many others out there I didn't mention. Anyone got any good Trading Blogs they want to share?
Update- Thanks for the comments and updates guys.
I'd like to start the Trading Axiom again if anybody is interested, let me know.
I've got some material focused on market statistics that I'm going to be sharing either way.
highprobabilitytrading AT gmail.com
Thursday, July 16, 2009
About 150 years to go, maybe only 130 if he's good.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Strong Demand still in railroads, coal, water, oil, and agriculture commodities.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
This is them in 2008, the part where Dookie looks at his stocks is hilarious-
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
The CME is also increasing the TICK increment on Bond futures to help improve liquidity. I'm wondering how brokers will adjust margin requirements on bond futures after this change in TICK increment.
CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, today announced plans to increase the minimum trading increment for U.S. Treasury Bond futures to 1/32nd from the current setting of 1/2 of 1/32nd, effective August 30. The change will be applied to all expiration months. The minimum trading increments for futures intermonth and intercommodity spreads as well as options will be unchanged. This contract is listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CBOT.The CME is also making changes to the S&P Financial SPCTR Index and the S&P Technology SPCTR Index futures contracts.
CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, announced today that the multiplier for the S&P Financial SPCTR Index and the S&P Technology SPCTR Index futures contracts will each double to $250 times the index price beginning Monday, July 27. Along with the increase in the contract multiplier, the new minimum tick size will also double to $25.00 per contract. These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CME.
Sunday, July 05, 2009
The criminal case began to unfold on the evening of July 3, when Aleynikov was arrested by FBI agents at Newark Airport after returning from Chicago. Aleynikov apparently had just started a job with another big firm in Chicago after leaving his previous employer in New York in early June. It appears that the financial institution allegedly victimized by Aleynikov had alerted federal authorities that its former employee might be up to no good.The Accused thief's name is Sergey Aleynikov-
Part of his LinkedIn Profile-
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Labels: economic number
OECD Stats World Unemployment Report (Spain is the highest at 18.1%)
Trading Economics China Unemployment Report
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Ever have a problem connecting to your data feed when using Ninjatrader while simultaneously using QuoteTracker? If you have quotes running on QT before you connect to your data feed on Ninjatrader you may get a connection login failed. In order to resolve this, stop the quotes in QT, then restart Ninjatrader and connect your data feed in Ninjatrader first, then start quotes in QuoteTracker.
Ever get an error when clicking on the menu bar in Quotetracker? I thought it was an issue with running Ninjatrader simultaneously, but it wasn't. It turns out it was due to my phone being plugged into the USB port. Unplug the phone, and problem fixed.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Labels: crude oil
Here are the three main tips-
1.Fill up in the morning when the outside temp is colder,(gas condenses at colder temps, so you get more bang for your buck as opposed to buying the middle of the day when its hot)
2.Fill up with the nozzle at half cock instead of fully pressed down,(less vapors escape when the filling rate is slower)
3.Fill up when your gas tank is 50% empty,(gas will evaporate faster if there is more air in the gas tank)
The facts from CalTrader-
Only buy or fill up your car or truck in the early morning when the ground temperature is still cold. Remember that all service stations have their storage tanks buried below ground. The colder the ground the more dense the gasoline, when it gets warmer gasoline expands, so buying in the afternoon or in the evening....your gallon is not exactly a gallon. In the petroleum business, the specific gravity and the temperature of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, ethanol and other petroleum products plays an important role.
A 1-degree rise in temperature is a big deal for this business. But the service stations do not have temperature controls.
Compensation at the pumps.
When you're filling up do not squeeze the trigger of the nozzle to a fast mode. If you look you will see that the trigger has three (3)stages: low, middle, and high. In slow mode you should be pumping on low speed, thereby minimizing the vapors that are created while you are pumping. All hoses at the pump have a vapor return. If you are pumping on the fast rate, some other liquid that goes to your tank becomes vapor. Those vapors are being sucked up and back into the underground storage tank so you're getting less worth for your money.
One of the most important tips is to fill up when your gas tank is HALF FULL or HALF EMPTY. The reason for this is, the more gas you have in your tank the less air occupying its empty space. Gasoline evaporates faster than you can imagine. Gasoline storage tanks have an internal floating roof. This roof serves as zero clearance between the gas and the atmosphere, so it minimizes the evaporation. Unlike service stations, here where I work, every truck that we load is temperature compensated so that every gallon is actually the exact amount.
They first said December 2008, then they said the end of 1st quarter 2009, then they said the end of June 2009. Now NinjaTrader has pushed back the new release until the end of 2009 with a Beta release in September. Although I was expecting NT to fail again due to their history, they gave me some hope by showing me the new improvements at the NT 7 update webpage. I'm most excited about the multiseries data plot and indicators based on different data series.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Labels: Betting System, gambling, traderfeed, trading performance
The turning point for me came several years ago when I had a heart to heart and confidential conversation with the founder of a large retail brokerage firm. He expressed interest in my work, because he wanted to see more small traders succeed. He stated, based on his company's research, that over 80% of all traders blew out their accounts well within a year of opening them up. That percentage, moreover, was much greater for small accounts, he pointed out, because those accounts took on too much risk in an effort to generate financially meaningful returns. When I asked the brokerage executive how many small traders (i.e., those with less than $100,000 of cash in their accounts) sustained a living from trading, he said he had never encountered such a situation. Yes, there will always be outliers who make outsize returns for a year or two, but sustaining such performance is far, far, far from the norm.
Summary- Most traders have less then 1 year of experience, are under capitalized, and end up losing there money.
This is not a big surprise. For example, compare trading to roulette, you have a 50.5% chance of losing against the house and given a long enough time (considering the houses' pockets are larger than yours), you will go broke.(with the exception of those physicists that cheated with the computer).
How does capitalization make any difference in trading? Take a look at the Cancellation Betting System. The smaller your starting bank roll, the faster you will go broke, obviously, but the odds are much higher against you because your average betting unit size is a much larger percentage of your starting bank roll compared to that of a well capitalized trader.
This leads to the question, if in gambling, the house has 0.25-0.5% edge over the players with essentially limitless capital and time, what edge does Mr.Stock Market have over Joe Trader?
While there are many similarities between gambling and trading, the stock market has many other variables to consider; moreover, there are certainly setups in the stock market statistically shown to have a much higher favor in one direction, but it is still up to the astute trader to take advantage of such trading opportunities.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
I got in at $57,, should I sell? The Google discussion is pretty funny.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Labels: Data Feed, interactive brokers, Lightspeed Trading, TD Ameritrade, video
Labels: Data Feed, interactive brokers, Lightspeed Trading, video, ZenFire
Monday, June 15, 2009
TIM on penny stock pumping..
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Labels: Automated Trading System, How I trade, interactive brokers, quotetracker
On a side not, I noticed QT's charts were printing candles 1min ahead of the actual time stamp, ie the 6:15am 1min candle (1min candle chart) should have had a close of 940.75 with 537 as the volume but instead it had the close for the 6:15am as 941.25 and 1310 as the volume, which in actuality should have been the close for the 6:16am 1min bar.I checked against IB and ZenFire data, so this is just an issue with QT printing candles 1min early.
PS- How often do you get door to door religious recruits coming to your house? I'd say I average about 1 every 2 months. They always come in groups of 2. I normally try to answer the door naked before they walk away. Good times.........
Monday, June 08, 2009
You need to use a professional addition of Visual Studio or if you use the Express edition you will need to follow the steps outlined here-
If you have Visual Studio 2005 or 2008 Professional follow these steps-
Step 1- Enable Debugging in NT
Step 2- Bring up a chart and apply the indicators and strategies you want to debug (add your indicators and strategies to the chart)
Step 3- Open Visual Studio (2005 or 2008 Professional Edition)
Step 4- Go to "Tools" and select attach to process and select NinjaTrader.exe (the title should be a chart- ie ES 5min)
Step 5- In Visual Studio open file and go to your ninjatrader directory and select the ".cs" files you want to debug.
Step 6- Add Break points on your selected file (you must add breakpoints in order to debug)
Step 7- Go to your open NT chart and right click and select "reload ninjascript"
Step 8- Visual studio should now pop up going from "running" to debugging" mode and should be focused on your first breakpoint.
Step 9- Add watch points and press F5 to step through.
Remember when debugging that you need to have 1 chart up with the indicators and strategies you want applied to the chart and the debugger starts stepping through at the very first bar on the chart (not the last bar). It is helpful to "add watch" on selected "indicators" and "time" when debugging.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Porn will never be the same again.....
WTF is wrong with Japanese game developers?
Friday, June 05, 2009
US residents are restricted from gambling on the Betfair website.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
So LT (aka Lonely Trader, aka Jason Bourne) found a guy in San Diego that was trading a 10 million dollar forex account at the Currency Cafe (aka Douche Central) and from a few sources sounded to be legit. LT sat with the guy named Lee (aka Mini Madoff) a few times and saw how he traded and was impressed and was about ready to slap down his life savings to the guy (150 dollars or some big number). However, just by chance, a guy that was defrauded by Mini Madoff was looking for his videos on youtube to show to his wife and just by chance stumbled upon LT's "LonelyTrader Blog" where he was telling the blogging community (me, FX, LT, Jules, TraderGav, and a couple other third tier blogs) about his recent encounter with a "Multi Million dollar Hedge fund trader; aka Lee Madoff Young". BAAAMMOO!!!!!!
Mr.Good Samiritan emailed LT and immediatly informed him of the fruad Lee Madoff was.
LT Pulled out his funds from Mini Madoff so fast it was reminescent of the Pullout scene in Debbie does Dallas Part II. The Moral of the story is, Google is like a God,, it saves money and sometimes peoples lives, via search results everyday.
Part 1.Another non-trading trading experience
Part 2.Lee Young, Pt II
Part 3.The Lonely Trader has been duped
Here's Lee Madoff's youtube Channel- He gives away SECRETS!!!!! (ROFL)
Monday, June 01, 2009
April 30, 2009- YM Futures Contract- Short June, Long September.
June 1, 2009- YM Futures Contract- Short June, Long September.
As you can see the spread has not tightened at all for the last month. The Trade has been -$30 since I put it on because of the initial cost of the bid/ask spread. The June Contract expires June 19.2009. The next two weeks should tell whether there is any merit to this trade at all.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Bank United becomes the biggest bank of 2009 to fail, bringing the total failed banks since July 2008 to 55. The banks' failure will cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp an estimated $4.9 billion.