Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Best futures Broker Based on Commissions, Data Feed, and Trading Platform

4 comments
I've reviewed some of the most popular Futures Brokers available to retail traders and rated them based on Commission. Finding the best broker based on commission should be one of the top factors you have when selecting your broker, because you can save you thousands of dollars per year by choosing the right one. I've put together a table comparing each broker based on their "advertised" commissions. Some brokers are negotiable in their commission rates, so be sure to call the broker your interested in before making the final decision. Remember, Commissions alone should not be your sole determining factor in choosing your broker, you should also consider data feed speed and reliability as well as the trading platform offered in which you will be placing your trades on.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Video on How to Read the Time and Sales

0 comments
A live trade setup from the chat room today showing what the time and sales should look like on a breakout trade for the Dow emini futures (YM).

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Rithmic Data Feed (Optimus Futures) vs InteractiveBrokers

0 comments
In this video I go over the Rithmic data feed and how it is one of the fastest data feeds available for futures traders. I compare Rithmic vs Interactive Brokers data feed and detail the strength and weaknesses of both.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Automated Trade System From NinjaTrader to Bracket Trader to Interactive Brokers

0 comments
This is a Video I made showing automated trades being sent from NinjaTrader to Bracket Trader to Interactive Brokers

How to Setup an Automated Trade System From NinjaTrader to ZeroLine Trader

2 comments
There are several reasons why someone might want to use ZeroLine Trader over NinjaTraders built in Trade Management software. You may like Zeroline Trader's trade management software over Ninjatraders ATM software because it is easy to use and you can customize your strategies in Zeroline Trader to your liking. You may also be using Zeroline Trader over NinjaTrader because you don't want to pay to have to use NinjaTrader but you like the charts and strategies that you've designed. Many people will install NinjaTrader and develop an automated trade system but never go live with it because of the extra fee's it costs to use NinjaTraders Trade management software. If you are client of Interactive Brokers there is a simple way around those fees by using another 3rd party application to manage the trade like ZeroLine Trader.

What you can do is setup an automated trade system in NinjaTrader and instead of using NinjaTrader trade management software, you send an email out to ZeroLine Trader to place the trade for you, and then ZeroLine Trader sends the order to Interactive Brokers. Using the Perl script I've written, and with a little bit of coding, this is a very simple setup and gives you a fully functional automated trade system for Ninjatrader through Interactive Brokers without the extra cost of having to own Ninjatrader or pay the extra cost for placing each trade. Having the automated trade system run directly through Ninjatrader to Interactive Brokers will be slightly faster and may be slightly easier to setup; however, using ZeroLine Trader as a middleman to save on the extra fee's may be worth it.



Here are the Downloads you will need-
  • NinjaTrader

  • Charting and Trading Platform

  • ZeroLine Trader
  • - Trade Management Software

  • Mailenable
  • - Free Mail Server

  • ActiveState Perl
  • - Free Scripting Software

  • HPT's ZeroLine Trader Perl Script
  • - An email client that checks your email and enters a trade into ZeroLine Trader when a new alert is found in NinjaTrader

  • Interactive Broker’s TWS Demo
  • - A Free Demo account with Interactive Brokers

  • Visual C++ 2005 from Microsoft
  • -This is software required by the InteractiveBrokers API to register properly

    Monday, October 11, 2010

    QuoteTracker to ZeroLine Trader Automated Trade System

    10 comments
    I have written a perl script which enables you to make automated trades based off of signals generated in Quotetracker.(Thanks to Boogster for the original script)
    This automated Trade System works the same way my Bracket Trader Automated System for QuoteTracker works, so I have made 1 video detailing how to setup Zeroline Trader to enable automated trades. I Like Zeroline Trader over Bracket Trader for the Automated Trade system because Zeroline Trader has more options to configure strategies and you can setup the automated trade system to trade multiple symbols very easily.



    Here are some Tips-
    Make Sure your Page is named "Futures" in ZeroLine Trader and your email template is setup to trade the Contract based on the Data Row ID in ZeroLine Trader



    How to setup the Order Email template in QuoteTracker-


    For reference on how to setup the ATS, you may want to watch my other videos.
    Boogster made a very detailed post on how to make an ATS and I decided to make a tutorial video following his guide. If you have a broker that accepts API connections like Interactive Brokers, then you can make this Automated Trading System for Free. Here are the downloads you'll need-

  • Medved Quotetracker
  • - Free Charting Software
  • ZeroLine Trader
  • - Trade Management Software
  • Mailenable
  • - Free Mail Server
  • ActiveState Perl
  • - Free Scripting Software
  • HPT's ZeroLine Trader Perl Script
  • - An email client that checks your email and enters a trade into ZeroLine Trader when a new alert is found in QuoteTracker
  • Interactive Broker’s TWS Demo
  • - A Free Demo account with Interactive Brokers
  • Visual C++ 2005 from Microsoft
  • -This is software required by the InteractiveBrokers API to register properly

    The Videos below were made as a tutorial for setting up QuoteTracker to Bracket Trader as a complete Tutorial. If you had trouble getting the ATS to work for ZeroLine Trader, these other Tutorial videos I made for Bracket Trader ATS may help you, as the only difference between the ATS between the two applications is the Order configuration and Perl Script. The old Perl Script used for BracketTrader will not work for ZeroLine Trader, you must download the new one above.

    HPT's ATS Tutorial Part 1 - Downloading Software Setup


    Part 2 - Installing and Configuring software


    Part 3 - Setting up Quotetracker & ATS Email Tempelate


    Part 4 - Bracket Trader Setup & Live Trade


    Part 5 - ATS Exit Signals & IB Demo Account


    Example of ATS Exit signal working


    I would like to give a special thanks to Boogster for his work on the ATS perl script, Jerry for his awesome charting software QuoteTracker, and Hong for his excellent Trade Management software ZeroLine Trader.

    Wednesday, September 29, 2010

    Interactive Brokers Data Feed vs. Optimus Futures Rithmic Data Feed Video

    1 comments
    This video is comparing IB's data feed vs. Rithmic data feed from Optimus Futures brokerage. IB's data feed is down on ICE, and Rithmic is working as usual.

    Tuesday, September 28, 2010

    MY TF chart with signals

    0 comments
    The first 11 charts is 1 day of TF on a 10 tick chart.











    10 tick chart
    20 tick chart
    30 sec chart

    Saturday, September 18, 2010

    Correlation Trader vs. Signal Trader

    0 comments
    Crude Oil Correlation vs AUD/JPY & AUD/USD

    Crude Oil Signals

    Correlations only work until they don't. Friday, we saw Crude Oil get crushed. I made the mistake of basing my trades off the correlation of AUD/USD, AUD/JPY vs Crude Oil. This trade idea may work on a longer term basis(several Days), but I am a Day Trader, and I need to stick to what works for me, and right now, trading signals on a minute to minute basis and using stops has been working fabulously.

    Thursday, September 02, 2010

    Crude Oil Intermarket Correlation vs AUD.JPY & Intraday Trend Analysis

    0 comments
    As you can see from the charts, Crude Oil and the AUD/JPY have been highly correlated as of late. We see Crude as a buy when it is oversold relative to AUD/JPY and Crude as a sell when overbought relative to AUD/JPY.


    In this chart you can see how AUD/USD put in a higher low when AUD/JPY & Crude Oil were putting in a low for the day, suggesting a bullish divergence.


    A common theme intraday for Crude Oil has been a second initiation in buying/selling in the direction of VWAP around 1 to 1:30pm EST, with a close near the low/high of day.(Please note my charts are Pacific time- Add 3hrs for EST)






    Sunday, August 22, 2010

    AUD/JPY Carry Trade and SP500 Correlation

    0 comments
    There is a high correlation between the SP500 and AUD/JPY and also AUD/USD.
    This chart shows SPY(SP500 vs AUD/JPY)


    Australia's elections over the weekend has resulted in hung parliament, which will take some time to resolve once all the votes are counted. With Issues in Australia over elections we might see AUD/JPY selling (risk aversion/unwinding carry trade) and this will help the bears bring the SP500 down. We are also seeing continued strength in the USD/JPY and Treasuries which has caused weakness in Crude Oil and Copper due to the inverse correlation relationship. (Crude Oil and Metals like copper have high correlation to AUD/USD, CAD/USD, and NZD/USD).

    The bear scenario for next week-
    SELLING IN-AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY SP500, Crude Oil, and Copper
    BUYING IN- JPY vs all currencies, 30yr bonds, and VIX

    Here are some old Intermarket Correlation resources from ForexAutomaton the period 2002-2008-




    Here are some links that look at Currency Correlation of the AUD/JPY vs SP500 and the current state of 30 year treasuries-

    aud vs jpy
    Presenting The New Correlation Regime: Treasury Butterflies And Risk | zero hedge
    Visualizing The Past Of The Treasury Yield Curve, And Deconstructing The Great Confusion Surrounding Its Future | zero hedge
    Will Tonight's AUD Slide Be The Start Of Another Major Market Selloff? | zero hedge
    HomeTrader: SP500 update and AUDJPY , AUDCAD and EURUSD.
    Lessons from the Pros - 06/15/2010 Issue - Stocks Article: Money for Leads?
    ES-AUDJPY "Swiss Watch" Recoupling Means Money In The Bank For Divergence Chasers | zero hedge
    ... from IDEAtrader Suite
    The Rational Move
    News | Currency Trading News | Currency Quotes | Commentary | Analysts - FX 360>
    Dollar Soars As S&P500 Hits 5 Year Lows - Forex Analysis, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal - Action Forex
    The Strongest Forex Correlations | Kathy Lien | FX360.com
    Commodity Currencies & SPX | Samadhi Research Investments
    Forex @ DailyFX - Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations
    Unwinding Of The AUD/JPY And Other Carry Trades Is Going To Take BHP Billiton Ever Lower - theyenguy -- Seeking Alpha
    Chronic Deflation Will Send 30-Year Treasuries to 3% (Gary Shilling)
    Australia election results point to hung parliament | World news | guardian.co.uk

    Saturday, August 21, 2010

    Squak Audio from May 6 2010 stock market flash crash

    2 comments

    Wednesday, August 18, 2010

    Richard Fuld - Walks away with 500 million

    1 comments
    Lehman Brothers was the largest US Bankruptcy at $691 Billion dollars.
    The CEO; Richard Fuld, walked away with around 500 million dollars.
    This video is just a reminder as to how truly messed up things were less then 2 years ago.

    Richard

    Sunday, August 15, 2010

    Long End Treasury Yields Falling

    0 comments
    With the 2 year Note Yield at record lows and the 5 year near record lows, I wanted to examine how much further they could fall and how much further the 30 year bond could fall to catchup to the levels seen when the 30 year made record lows December 18, 2008.

    The Chart below shows yields on the 2,5,10, and 30 year going back to January 2008.


    The Chart below shows the yield spread between the 30 vs 2, 30 vs 5. I also divided the 30 yr by the 2 year and the 30 year by 5 year to see the spread at a more magnified view.

    The 2 year has breached 2008 lows and is making new record lows, while the 5 year is 20 basis points from the low of 1.266 set December 18,2008. The 30 year has a long way to go if it is to catchup to the yields it saw during December 2008 lows. Given the Short end of the curve has already hit or is near record lows, how much further does the 30 year have to drop to catchup?
    The 30 year made a record low of 2.53% on December 18, 2008, which means as of Fridays close the 30 year trading at 3.87% would have to drop 1.34% or 134 basis points to retest those record lows.

    With ZB currently trading around 132, we could expect ZB to rise all the way to 142 if yields are to retest December 2008 lows.
    Here is a chart of ZB Trading Today August 15, 2010.


    Here is a chart of ZB trading under the March 2008 contract during the period of December 2008.

    Here is a good article from Bond Squawk on Negative Tip spreads.

    If negative TIP spreads don't currently forecast rising inflation, but just a reduction in forecast GDP and economic growth, then would gold be a good investment? Most people believe gold is a good inflation hedge; however, Mish Economic Analysis found Gold to be a better investment during periods of Deflation as opposed to periods of Inflation.

    So what should we do? Bet on Deflation and a possible double dip recession? Buy the long end of bonds, go long gold, and stay out of stocks? We shall see in time what happens.

    Wednesday, August 04, 2010

    Live Futures and Stock Trading Chat Room at Justin.TV

    1 comments
    Stop by the Trading Room. I host a live trading group of mainly ES, Crude, Gold,  and momentum stock Traders. Anyone is free to join, but we have mods who don't hesitate to ban people who don't take trading seriously.


    Watch live video from High Probability Trading on Justin.tv

    Saturday, July 31, 2010

    OEC Special Offer on Commission

    4 comments

    The fine print says you must open an OEC EQUITIES account, which is 25k, and a futures account is another 5k. So, I assume they want you to open both, 30k total, and then you can get the good deal on the futures trades. I've never personally traded through them, but I've tested their platform out and it gets the job done and it has a risk manager and the ability to automate trade ideas which is a big plus.

    Tuesday, July 20, 2010

    Housing Market Recovery Precursors

    0 comments
    I'm watching to see if the lows have been made for Lumber and Copper, as they are vital ingredients to building houses. 

    Lumber Today- July 20, 2010

    Lumber trading 1977

    Copper setting up with a rising  wedge pattern off summer lows.

    Sunday, July 18, 2010

    Treasury Yield Spreads

    0 comments

    The Yield Curve is Flattening. Long term interest rates are declining faster then shorter dated rates. The 2 year looks to be bottoming out at 0.58%. Mortgage rates are hitting all time lows bringing the 30yr interest rates down further. The expectation for a fed fund rate increase for next march has also decreased this past week.

    Monday, May 31, 2010

    How to Reduce your CME Futures Commissions

    1 comments
    If you are a serious Futures Trader that trades ES, NQ, YM, or any other CME, CBOT, or NYMEX product, then you have the ability to save thousands if not more per year by obtaining an Exchange membership depending on the amount of volume you trade per day.
    Checkout the Video and Spreadsheet provided.




    CME Fee Reduction Spreadsheet


    CME Membership Webpage


    CME Fee Schedule

    Saturday, May 29, 2010

    How Winning Hot Streaks Come to an End

    0 comments
    Two studies look at the increased Risk taking behavior gamblers exhibit after having a string of successful hands. To summarize, gamblers on a winning streak will end up taking greater risks on less probable hands because their most recent winnings positively influenced them into believing they were on a "hot streak". Hot streaks can very easily lead to disasters where all it takes is one bad hand to wipe away all your winnings because you let your past positive emotions effect your risk taking.

    Winning and Positive Affect Can Lead to Reckless Gambling

    Experiments 1 and 2 examined whether winning versus losing led to reckless betting for real prize money. Experiment 2 also assessed whether positive or negative emotions were linked to such reckless betting. College students were randomly assigned to experience primarily either wins or losses during the rigged first round of a computerized card tournament that had 2 independent rounds. For the second round, participants' chip totals were reset and cards were dealt randomly. In Experiment 1 (N = 107), participants in the Initial-Winning, as compared with the Initial-Losing, condition bet more recklessly (i.e., bet too many chips when a loss was likely). Experiment 2 (N = 72) again showed that Initial-Winning participants bet significantly more recklessly than did Initial-Losing participants. It also revealed that positive affect was significantly positively correlated with such reckless betting. These findings have implications for understanding how college students, those at an age when they are especially vulnerable to problem gambling, can come to lose more money than they can afford. Initially winning and positive affect when gambling could be risk factors.
    Lori F. Cumminsa, Michael R. Nadorffa, 1 and Anita E. Kellya


    The effect of positive feelings on risk taking: When the chips are down

    Two studies conducted simultaneously investigated the influence of positive affect on risk taking. Results of the study, which employed an actual measure of subjects' willingness to bet something of value, supported the prediction of an interaction between level of risk and positive affect: subjects who had reason to be feeling elated bet more than control subjects on a low-risk bet, but wagered less than controls on a high-risk bet. At the same time, in contrast, a study involving hypothetical risk-taking showed that in general subjects were more willing to take the chance as probability of success went up; but that elated subjects were more daring than controls on a “long shot.” Differences in hypothetical vs real risk taking were noted, and the complexity (the interaction) of the influence of positive feelings on real risk taking was emphasized. The results were related to other research suggesting an influence of feeling states on cognitive processes and decision making.

    Alice M. Isen and Robert Patrick

    Friday, May 21, 2010

    How a Girlfriend can help you trade

    2 comments

    Should you hire your wife or girlfriend as a Risk Manager?
    New Research from the Journal of Gambling studies found that when gamblers were being observed by a male or female peer they spent less time gambling; moreover, the gamblers being observed by female peers lost less money relative to other observer conditions. The study also found that when gamblers were induced into a negative mood prior to gambling they reported more positive moods after gambling, whereas those with positive and neutral moods reported more negative moods after gambling.

    Mood and Audience Effects on Video Lottery Terminal Gambling

    Published online: 17 November 2009
    Abstract  Little is known about the situational factors associated with gambling behavior. We induced 180 male participants (mean age: 21.6) into a positive, negative, or neutral mood prior to gambling on a video lottery terminal (VLT). While gambling, participants were observed by either a male peer, female peer, or no one. Induced mood had no effect on gambling behavior. Participants induced into a negative mood prior to gambling, however, reported more positive moods after gambling, whereas those with positive and neutral moods reported more negative moods after gambling. Participants observed by either a male or female peer spent less time gambling on the VLT compared to those not observed. Participants observed by a female peer lost less money relative to the other observer conditions. Degree of problem gambling in the last year had little influence on these effects. Some practical implications of these findings are discussed.
    Authors- Sandeep Mishra, Michael Morgan, Martin L. Lalumière and Robert J. Williams


    Friday, April 30, 2010

    Best Futures Broker Commission Comparison

    10 comments
    I've reviewed some of the most popular Futures Brokers available to retail traders and rated them based on Commission. Finding the best broker based on commission should be one of the top factors you have when selecting your broker, because you can save you thousands of dollars per year by choosing the right one. I've put together a table comparing each broker based on their "advertised" commissions. Some brokers are negotiable in their commission rates, so be sure to call the broker your interested in before making the final decision.



    Best Futures Broker Table Spread Sheet Comparison

    Best Futures brokers comparison 0-1,000k sides/Month


    Best Futures brokers comparison 2,000-5,000k sides/Month


    Best Futures brokers comparison 5,000-10,000k sides/Month

    Sunday, April 18, 2010

    Southpark's Cartman as CNBC's Cramer

    1 comments

    Wednesday, April 14, 2010

    Trading Blogs

    8 comments
    Here are some Trading's Blogs Taken from my Bookmarks-
    10 Financial Rules for Life
    4X TRDR
    Across the Curve
    Action Points
    Ajay Shah's blog
    AMT Trading
    anarco's blog
    Angry Bear
    Anomalous Material
    Anticipating PPT Days
    Austinp’s Blog
    b z b t r a d e r: Reading the market
    BackTesting Blog
    Beanieville Inc.
    Behind The Spread - Your Portal for the Investment Community
    Bespoke Investment Group
    Between the Hedges
    Big Mike's Trading Blog: Recap video for Tue 5/12/09, bar-by-bar
    Blog - Daily Options Report
    Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
    By Age 24
    Calculated Risk
    Capital is Scarce
    Capitalogix
    Chart Swing Trader
    COTs Timer Commitments of Traders|Cracking the Market Code/>
    CSS Analytics
    Curtis Faith's Blog — A Turtle Master's Insights on the Art of the Trade
    CXO Blog - Investing Notes - Stock Market Gurus, Investing Ideas, Market Timing, Economic Indicators, Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds
    Daneric's Elliott Waves
    Day Trader Radio Stock Market Radio Show - Trader Education | Live Alerts | Technical Analysis
    Day Trading Journal
    Daytrend
    Dividend Growth Investor
    Don Miller Trading Journal: Out of Hiding
    Downtowntrader
    Dynamic Trader Forex Blog FXCPS.co.uk
    E-Mini Player: EMini S&P 500 Futures Trading Journal
    ES Index Futures Analysis
    ES Trader
    Excel Trader
    Fickle Trader
    Forex Blog | Currency Research | Kathy Lien
    Forex Intraday Trading
    Forex Signal & Analysis
    fxmadness.com
    Gaming the Market: Focus on Market Manipulation
    Gtotoy
    Hack the market
    HeadlineCharts.blog.com
    Hedge Fund Blogger.com
    Hedge Fund News
    Hedge->According.ly: The post gap trade
    High Probability Trading: Trading Blogs
    How I Day Trade
    Howard Lindzon
    HPT KICK ASS TRADING
    Hunt for the daytrade: Trades for 9-17-09
    IBDIndex
    Jim Rogers
    JMOT's Blog - Towards Financial Freedom with Options Trading
    Johnson's Trading Blog
    Kevin's Market Blog
    Knight Capital Management
    Lebowski Research Institute for Capital Gains
    Long & Wrong
    Market Rewind: Anatomy of a Day
    Markets and Where They Are Going With Charts
    MarketSci Blog
    MetaTrader 5
    MGTrader
    Michaelarold's Blog
    Milk Trader
    My Screens | What the $%@&* Trading!
    Notable Calls
    Obamanomics
    OONR7
    Order Flow: Statistical Studies**Constantly Updating**
    Pattern Profits
    Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed
    PRD day trader
    Proprietary Trader
    PursuingWealth.com
    Quantifiable Edges
    Quantitative Trading
    Quantivity
    Reaper Trades
    RiskAddict.com
    S&P E-mini Trader
    Samurai Trader
    Securities Trading from Both Sides of my Brain
    Simon Super Trader
    Simplicity in Trading
    SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog
    Speculator Ed's Blog: Ed's Volume @ Price / Bar Indicator
    Stock Trading Ideas - Free Stock Picks, Stock Trades and Trading Resources
    stockbee
    StockRake | Mostly index trading, while finding the next swing trade opportunities
    STRATEGY PERFORMANCE - TRADING THE ODDS
    Strictly Market Profile
    swing trading | top websites | stock technical analysis | financial interviews
    System Drawdown
    System Trading with Woodshedder
    T3LIVE.COM
    Team LBR
    Technical Analysis: Hard Right Edge technical analysis, swing trading and day trading tools, education and original strategies for day traders and swing traders
    The Big Picture
    The Buffalo Trader
    the evil speculator - one nefarious trade at a time
    The Gap Guy - Gap Guy Blog
    The Lonely Trader
    The Stock Market Advantage
    The Trend Follower
    TheRumpledOne
    Tipster amibroker
    Trade to learn
    Trader Eyal
    TraderAm
    TraderFeed: Trading Screens and Trading Decisions: Finding What Works for You
    Trading Blog - Trader's Narrative
    Trading Craze
    Trading is Fun: +6.1 pips = 91.5 cents
    Trading RM, LLC.
    Trading The Mini's
    Trading the Odds
    Tuxedo Cat's Profit Flo
    Tyro Trade Forum
    Valtinho.com | All posts tagged 'money-management'
    Vaporize COMEX CountDOWN « Meltdown 2011
    Wall St. Warrior: NR7
    WALL STREET FIGHTER | Business News and Money Tips for Men
    WallStreetOasis.com | Wall Street Interviews, Career Advice, and Business News
    xTrends
    zentrader.ca
    Zero Hedge

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