Thursday, January 31, 2008

Realistic Expectations of your Trading Results

Comment by Bill aka NO DooDahs!
Posted on the 24th of January, 2008 at 11:30 pm.

He admitted he had a problem, that it was emotional, and that it was related to risk. Good. He introduced a crutch that he thinks will help him handle it (smaller size, apparently a common step per Dr. Brett). It'll be interesting to see how it works.

The fascinating connections between all of these blowups? Disregard for the risks, failure to codify and follow rules, and unrealistic expectations of performance. They're willing to borrow against the entire value of their homes (with a risky strategy! with some strategies and a good credit score/low rate, a small HELOC might actually make a little sense). They're willing to swing 10-20 times their account balance overnight. All of them blow off their rules, based on emotional input. They even SAY IT, so it's not a knowledge problem. All of them think it's easy money. "I made $40K last year and $10K in a day, I'll make it back!" Not a one of them thinks in terms like, "hey, if I can make 25% a year slow and steady, I can save money on my job and throw my savings into this thing, and by the time I'm ___, I'll be swinging enough account to retire and live off of this easy!" Nah, these f*ckers are all about $10K to $2 mil in two years. Unrealistic? Hell yeah. Destined to blow up? Definitely.

It's an attitudinal problem. It's an emotional problem.

@ Prospectus: it’s all about fear and drama. Fear of losing “self”-esteem (in ” because it’s usually about how OTHERS perceive us), money, not meeting our ambitions, or losing relationships - these four fears usually trigger bad behavior. The “drama queen” aspect is about fulfilling some positive emotional need with the activity.

You ever do something really f*cked up because you thought it would make you look like “the man?” Get in a fight because someone dis’ed you? That’s fear of losing “self”-esteem.

You ever start a fight with a girlfriend or do something else stupid and destructive to the relationship, because in your heart of hearts you wanted to end the relationship but didn’t want the conversation; so arranging a “drama” could let you have an excuse to leave?

Now … how might someone act this out in trading????

The “not meeting ambitions” could arguably be related to a loss of “self”-esteem, but it’s a little different, in that these bozos all have unrealistic expectations about what they can do in the markets. When something goes against them, they don’t want to admit the f*ckup because that would conflict with their expectations of greatness, so they rationalize it into something that allows them to stay in the trade. Same thing with minimizing their losses, i.e., “I’ll make it back.”

There’s also the “drama” of f*cking up in order to get reassurance that you’re liked/loved/accepted, which you see in all the “there, there” messages that these guys get in their comments.

I think the first step is admitting the “why” of it. In Seykota-speak, they need to internalize the message that their results (and actions) are the best evidence of their intentions. If they intend to find an edge, design rules around it, stick to the rules, apply the edge repeatedly, etc., then they need to ACT their way into a new way of thinking, through repetition. When the feelings come up, admit to themselves “hey that’s my ego talking. I’m not godd*m Soros here, let me drop this dollar/pound trade now” instead of rationalizing reasons for staying in it. It’s a lot easier to do when you know why you were f*cking up in the first place.

I think they also need to find whatever emotional satisfaction they were looking for in trading, in some other place. That’s why I suggested, among other things, skydiving, hang gliding, and shooting slingshots at lions in the zoo at night. That oughtta give ‘em some drama!

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Taking some time off

I'm taking some time off from trading. Not sure when or if I will come back. Hopefully some people learned some stuff from my blog that will help them in their trading.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Jan 28 $602 on 42c final


I came back and traded the last hour and a half and doubled my morning P/L. I messed up by not holding an NQ short trade because I put my trailing stop too close. I got 2 good long scalp trades on ER2 in the last 30min but missed the big pop when C and BAC popped around 3:30pm.

P/L= $602 on 42c

Overall, financials led the way up and tech was the weak sector throughout most of the day, which is why I favored short setups on NQ and long setups on YM and ER2.



Sector correlation

Jan 28 $308 on 13c morning


Missed Trade- My system gave a long signal around 10:40am EST on trend continuation, but I missed the trade and watched the indices make new highs. I noticed NQ's relative weakness compared to the other indices and waited for a short setup later on NQ.

Missed Trade- There was about a 30-60second delay for a short scalp on CL when the stock indices dropped at 12:06pm EST. I put in a short limit on the ask on CL but the market ran to fast and I missed a 20 cent move.

P/L= $308 on 13c.

Bad trades- Let one of my NQ shorts run against me too far. I let this happen because I was trying to gauge ZB support for a bounce. The trade turned in my favor a little later and I made money on both, however I should have locked in profits on both the NQ short and ZB before I let them retest the highs/lows.

I'm probably done for the day. My goal is to following my plan and stay out of the afternoon chop where I tend to churn my morning profits. Right now for my small account size, I'm going to try to make $200/day until I rebuild my account and then I will increase my daily profit goals.

Financials Strength


Financials are the strongest sector trending up this morning, giving strength to the indices. Watching XLF, BAC, WM, and C for market direction today.

ER2 better for long scalps, NQ better for short scalps (SMH weakest sector right now)

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Weekly Charts

Eco #'s








Next week should be wild with FOMC announcement and a whole raft of ECO #'s.
I've got to get a back up battery unit for my computer because my current one isn't working and the weather has been knocking out my power the last couple of days which makes trading riskier if I have multiple open orders and my power gets knocked out like it did a few weeks ago.
Thanks for all the comments people, I will try to answer questions tomorrow.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Top Ten Trading Mistakes

I'm the guy that's made every mistake in the book. If Dr. Steenbarger were to write another book, the whole book could indeed be about me and all of my mistakes posted on this blog. Today, I'm going to review my top ten trading mistakes.

10. Getting up late and missing the morning open.

9. Trading the afternoon dull drums and churning all my morning profits.

8. Trading counter trend, especially when market internals are heavily favored in one direction (Advance/Decline has strong bias and market up/down volume has strong bias)

7. Trading from open to close without a break or lunch, causing mental exhaustion and poor trading performance in the afternoon.

6. Letting a scalp trade turn into a short term trade or overnight trade.

5. Letting a winning trade turn into a loser.

4. Taking impulsive trades that are not part of the system I've designed.

3. Widening my stop or using no stop at all.

2. Adding to losing positions.

1. Trading too large of a position for the account size, causing emotion to control the trade instead of the system I've designed in advance.

Exrta Mistakes regarded to trading-

1.Not taking profits at the end of the month and waiting for a bad day to come around so I can lose all of the gains for the month in one day.

2.Trading before I have to leave for work or an appointment causing added pressure on open losing positions.

3.Having an open position before an economic # is released or before FOMC makes interest rate announcements.

4. Trading OPEX Friday and the day after OPEX Friday. (Seriously, take Trader Mikes advice on this one.

I've opened up the comment section for registered people. No more anonymous comments.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Message To The People

I only had about 100 active readers to this blog before I posted the first video. I've been making posts to this blog for over 2 years. I never cared about driving traffic to this website. What is the motivation, ad revenue? To make a couple dollars from random people that stumble upon this blog? Yes, you have all figured me out now. This was my master plan. To make a couple dollars a day from ads by making a video of myself swearing at the computer screen. I will be a millionaire in no time.

-I've made over 500 posts over the last 2 years on this blog, journaling each trading day so I could become a better trader and learn from my mistakes.

-No one I know personally even knows about this blog.

-The first video was real. I wish it never happened. I wish I never posted it.

-The second video was a fake I made because people wanted to see me have another blowup.(Very nice people were cheering me on, calling me an idiot, saying they knew the market was going to tank 600+pts over the weekend, telling me I should kill myself)

-I hope most of the anonymous posters will leave. You don't have a name, you don't have a voice. I don't care who reads this blog, I don't care about traffic.

-Over 350,00 people have watched the video in less than 5 days. People have connected with the video and laughed because they see themselves making the same mistakes. Thousands of people have said that they learned something from the video.

-A large majority of anonymous posters threw up there arms and said that they felt betrayed and called me a lier. These people have learned nothing. These people were only here for the laugh to begin with, and these people probably have never tried trading for a living.

-Chances are I will never meet any of you people out there in internet land. Over the last 2 years I have only had two connections in meeting people through my website that cared for what I had to say and wanted to learn how I traded. These people contacted me by email. These people are KS and MS. To both of you, I'm sorry for the way my blog has turned out recently. Life has been tough and will probably get tougher.

-To the people that commented and saw my sense of humor, got the Trader Monthly joke, heard my sarcasm when visiting Tim Knights website and calling him "the best trader in the world",,,, you people I can tell are real traders. DT and the VO team got my sense of humor on the last video and that is what matters most. All you other guys can say all you want and I won't care.

-Here's a challenge for all you anonymous people that are bashing me. How about identifying your blog, your trades you make each day, and your P/L statements. Also, post a picture of your face for the world to see. Until then, you need to take a step back before you even have the right to call me harsh names.

I'm turning comments off and I'm contemplating deleting all of my videos and even this blog at this point. Real people can email me if they want. Thanks to the people that offered words of encouragement an advice. Thanks Dr. Steenbarger for stopping by. I wish I could be a trader at Kingstree, but like you said, most traders will never make it to the elite level. I will keep plugging away and maybe one day I will have proven myself through my P/L statements to get an interview.


Blowup part 2 a fake?

Alright, I confess, the second video was a fake. People wanted to see another blowup, so I did my best. Anyway, Tim Knight isn't endorsing me, I was just using him as an example because everyone loves him, unlike me and the rest of us third tier blog traders. Maybe I can be considered a second tier blog with my video, who knows.
Anyway, I hope everyone had a good laugh. I'll have to work on my acting. I actually made 3 videos for the blowup part 2 and settled for this one. There was another one with me crying but it didn't look as good.

I traded today for 10min today, made my profit goal, and now I'm off to work.

I did it again. FUCKED.........

I can't believe this. I'm going to be totally honest here. I didn't want to post this after just losing a ton of money, but it seems like the world is out to get me. My life can't get any worse now.

Another trading disaster. I Shorted yesterday with just 1 contract(following my rules to reduce my leverage), and then BAAM! MSFT blows up in the after hours and I'm totally fucked! I just can't take it anymore............Especially now that my position would have been in the money............GOD HELP ME........

Here's the video--Someone kill me.......

Stock Trading disaster - Watch more free videos

I dare you to hold over the weekend


Fess up! Who's holding over the weekend?

For some reason IB is having IP issues and I can't maintain a data connection with my real account, however the simulated account is working fine for some reason. Mysterious.

Update: Got things working

Cramer vs. Rick Santelli, CNBC,

January 22-
Rick- Cramer you are an idiot and a stock pumper
Cramer- No I'm not, BOOYAH! BUY! BUY!BUY!

January 19-
Cramer setting the ULTIMATE BEAR TRAP, on Hardball with Chris Matthews

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Withdrawing funds

Lets review and summarize the 1,000's of comments I've been reading all over the internet-

-Your a gambler
-Your an idiot
-You need to quit
-You should have never held over the weekend
-Everyone new they were going to do a surprise interest rate cut
-You should have expected YM to go limit offer down -650 pts
-You should have diversified
-I've made the same mistakes
-30k isn't even that much money
-I know some people that have lost even more
-You should get a real job
-Where's your stop
-I hope you bounce back

The list goes on,,,

Position sizing has always been my problem. A recent commenter said the 1k swings are to big for me to handle emotionally, and he is right. I was at all time highs in my account last week after having a personal best day of making over 10k in a day. And then I took a gamble trade over the weekend and a blackswan event occurred and I lost almost everything. How can you come back and trade? You didn't learn your lesson in just a day? Your still trading too much leverage?

I've read the comments and I realize my mistakes. The only way for me to recover is to take action and start correcting my problems. As much as I hate it, I'm withdrawing more than half of what I have left in my account today. I feel like I will be handicapping my trading ability doing so, but it is the only way I will learn. By doing so, I will have reduced my leverage available, and my P/L swings will be much smaller. There is a much higher probability of me losing my whole account as it gets smaller, but I was able to turn 7k into 40k in 6 months last year, so I do have a chance at making money with a small account.

I could make more videos of me blowing up my account, but the couple dollars in ad revenue isn't worth losing thousands of dollars and being laughed at by hundreds of thousands of people on the internet.

Thank you for visiting.

Jan 24 Choppy with bond futures selloff

ZN- 10yr bond futures retracing after sharp peak

YM- Dow futures has a choppy up session

NYSE A/D remains to the upside

HPT: it's clear that you're a serial self-sabotager. You've clearly put in the research and screen time to hone your skills as far as far as entry patterns. As an analogy to driving a car, you've mastered how to put the key in and turn the ignition. These are your setups and strategies.

As to trading size, how much research and screen time have you devoted to assessing when to trade 1 contract, when to add contract, when to go hogwild and make it a 10 contract entry from the start? Do you have any rules in set in stone as to your sizing methodology? This would be knowing how much pressure to apply to the gas pedal. I fear you have no such rules and gas the pedal sporadically.

As to stop losses and targets, do you have a set methodology? Do you peel off contracts at pre-set targets or go by feel? Do you set a stop loss or wing it? This is braking. Well, you get where I'm going. Successful active traders are 5 tool stars. You can't make it to The Show blessed only with a great arm or as a slugging, no glove DH or as a platoon late inning defensive specialist. Unlike baseball, trading isn't a team sport. You can't specialize in one facet of the trading game, you need all the skills from entry to exit, and be ready on a dime to do it again.

As for position sizing, I start out the day trading 1 contract with a set stop and only add to the first contract if the trade goes my direction. I then lower and trail my stop, but sometimes I have to widen my stop when trading is choppy, and that is where I incur a lot of churning and sometimes get frustrated. I agree that I need better position sizing skills. I will take suggestions from readers if anyone out there has advice. This is one area that I need improvement in surely. I know some people will go all in on there trade and then scale out. Some people scale into their positions like me. Some people keep a fixed contract size on every trade. I welcome all opinions on this subject and I know that this is a highly debated subject on elitetrader.

For the record I traded and lost money today. I was up over 1k and then I preceded to churn that profit into a loss. Perhaps taking my profit for the day once I've hit my profit target for the day is the best strategy.

Just quit, walk away,

Lets get the record straight.

I day trade Part Time.
I work 40hrs/week like every other avg. American at a good paying job with people I like.
My trading account IS NOT MY LIFE SAVINGS, even though I said it in my video. I've had many bad days and never would want to be totally wiped out of all my assets. I realize that my trading account can be lost, and that trading is very dangerous, and that you should only invest/trade what you can afford to lose.(RULE #1)
I started with less then 10k in the account last year.

I've made good returns trading futures

I have a tendency to lose a lot of my gains in one day from poor discipline. And I should use daily loss limits to avoid this from happening in the future.

My Trading blowups

I'm a Trader, and each day I learn more about the markets and I get better.
Truth be told, I lost most of my account in the first 6 months when I first started trading 2 years ago, but I didn't completely wash out, I traded small, stayed focused and made back my stake.

There have been some good comments that I would like to quote/address.

1. Easy to say "take a break, walk away, etc" but daytraders know how it is. Like everyone else who's on auto-pilot to wake up and go to your job, this is what a daytrader does. Has nothing to do with addiction or anything. People with godawful 2 hour commutes to go to their sickening desk job every damn day of their lives aren't addicted to it.

Unless a trader is totally liquidated by his/her broker, unless he's got nothing left in the account to trade with, I'm know 90% of traders would be doing the same damn thing: getting right back on the horse. Another 5% might not be laying on trades immediately the next day, but they'd turn on their computers and see what's happening with the markets. The remaining 5% would walk away or take a sustained break, and good for them. Some people have a bad day at the office and take a "leave of absence" too. Ironically, that's actually frowned upon as irresponsible and weak in society. A daytrader shows up to work after taking a horrendous hit, and everyone's ready to strap the guy in a gurney for a prolonged vacation for deep introspection and meditation. Sure, everyone's mental makeup is different, but in this case, I think HPT is doing what the vast majority of us active traders would do.

2.Daytrading is easy.

I could get anyone with a working eye and a stick taped to their stump up and trading online in a day.

The only hard thing is keeping your sanity for the long haul since it's possible you may put in 100 hours/week and lose money for the week, month, year. Plus, it's very lonely so you'll be flocking to the idiots on CNBC, chatrooms and blogs for cameraderie. Plus, all your family & friends will deem you a loser & societal misfit until proven otherwise (i.e. you're making insane amounts of money).

3.TMK500 said...It's clear you've touched a resonant emotion in a lot folks and have generated more comments and responses on your abberant large loss than the sum total of interest in your ability to properly read order flow, exhaustion spikes and intermarket analysis.

For whatever reason, you've chosen this public cathartic path to "deal" with the situation ... "OK"... it's unique and it's your way of coping: kudos.

Now, Go To Ground ... get back to your roots and your "edge". Is your edge on market timing the larger swings or grinding it out on the short term interval? Do that which feels comfortable because you've practiced the competent trade to the point of being bored and pay your way through life -- enjoy the bounty that your screen time, methodology and unique "day to day" methods have afforded you. The legacy HPT trader stayed on the positive side of the equity curve week in and week out without the account crippling blowups.

You've already demonstrated time and time again that you've discovered how to exploit and execute on your "edge" in grinder mode .... and, you have done so without investing a bazillion $$$ in a bunch of silly retail trading seminars. You self education, unique intermarket approach for trade management and ability to read order flow has seperated you from a "herd" of retail mutts who refuse to do the hard work and continue to shell out $$$ for the latest "squiggly line" indicator panacea.

Finally, my parting thought --- "It's OK to be successful." I know that sounds like psychobabble tripe BS, but you've set yourself up for the "Big One" time and time again after being on a pretty decent equity run. I've seen the type, I know the type, I am "the type" --- until you believe that you really deserve to consitently be on the winning side, you'll find a way to sabotage yourself and engage, once again, in a cathartic drama for all to hear and see around the world.

I'm looking forward to your future posts that continue to show the detailed analysis of why you executed a particular trade in a particular way and justify the reasoning for taking that trade a 1000 times again.

4.Tim Knight said...

We've all been there. And the anonymous jerks telling you that you got what you deserved can fuck themselves. I'm just sayin'.

5.bigbear said...

i feel your pain.

IB auto-closed my position of 8 NQs 1/2 point above limit down.

my realized losses came up to nearly 30k.

after the fed cut and bounce, i could not get back in to reduce losses as my excess liquidity was only enough to open 1 position.

so we learn ...

6. My buddy DehTrader has also taken a beating from the recent drop, as I'm sure many investors/traders have. Simply put, Trading is a tough business.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

300pt rally

Why would you go long,,,
Your an idiot,,,,
Stupid day trader,,,,
The market is going down,,,
Live another day and learn from your mistakes............

Short Term bottom?

I traded today, used my stops, and I'm beginning my long road to recovery........

Financials are bouncing today while tech is hitting major support on heavy volume with AAPL and RIMM down considerably. The question is, do we have a bounce right here, right now? The Asian and European markets may go lower tomorrow and you've got to wonder what the FOMC is going to do next week with the current interest rates, after having just cutting interest rates 75 basis points on Tuesday to prevent a stock market crash. Perhaps the best trade right now if you want to stay in the market is to look for strong stocks that are most likely to bounce from heavy short covering. It appears momentum tech and solar stocks are dangerous to enter still, while the heavily beaten up financials that weren't tied to the subprime mess may be setting up for a bounce.

The day after panic and AAPL falls

Well, a lot of people that have never traded before are laughing at the video I posted and they don't even know what a futures contract is. However, my video connects with tens of thousands of people that have lost money in the stock market. You have all heard of how 90% of day traders fail, but the truth is a lot of swing traders lose too. As much as I hated reading his post, Bill Rempel made a post in regards to my over leveraged trading blowup and how you should trade with the correct position size for your account and have a plan and an edge. I hated his post so much because he was right, I was over leveraged and I shouldn't have carried a trade that big over the weekend.

My blog has always been about learning how to trade and sharing it with whom ever wanted to read. Dr. Brett Steenbarger from TraderFeed linked me and he is a guy that has always been about helping traders learn and helping them solve the psychological challenges that traders face on a daily basis. I read his book a year ago and it helped me in my trading a lot. Dr. Brett is simply a good guy and I recommend his book to all serious traders.
Enhancing Trader Performance: Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology (Wiley Trading)

Right now I'm looking at AAPL and it looks like a lot of long term investors are going to experience the same type of pain I felt yesterday.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008


The best thing I can do now is try to make my trading blowup go to a good cause.
I support the Christopher Reeves foundation and support stem cell research to find cures for many debilitating diseases that people are living with right now, and also support the Susan G. Komen race for the cure.

My viral video is now deleted from youtube. Apparently I used the F-Word too many times. I had many people quickly make parities of my video, including Tim Knight.(I laughed, but I feel like the biggest loser in the world now and I'm seriously thinking about quiting trading even after making 2k back today). I'm sure its easy to laugh at me now when you have made big gains for being right about your stock trades.

The fact is, the FED had to step into today to save a stock market crash. We are still in a recession, and there is still a lot of uncertainty about where the market is going from here.
I hope some people learn something from my blog. I'm sorry to my family and friends who may have seen my video, and I thank everyone for all the positive words. I hope no one has to go through what I've gone through and I feel the pain for the people that have. Although I feel bad about my loss, I still have a positive outlook on life and I'm still up 8k from where I was a year ago. I could continue to trade, but I will only do so now with a pre-set stop loss for the day. I wish my broker had that feature, as it would have saved me a lot of money. It is my fault for not buying some software that would provide that protection for my account.

I'll be back

Surprise Fed interest rate cut

You knew this was going to happen,,,,,right. A day late and 30k dollars short.

I sold the BOTTOM

If I had held,,,,,I would have made money. Instead I'm an idiot of the internet and I lost almost all my money. Meanwhile people laugh at me. The FED stepped in with the surprise interest rate cut and the market popped up. You have no clue to how I feel right now. Just disgusted.

When the market bounces

I'm seeing a 200pt spike up on the DAX and large spikes up in the FTSE right now. Limit downs taken off futures it appears. When the market bounces and puts in a huge reversal after flushing out all the longs, be sure to come by and tell me I'm an idiot for calling this a market crash.
Listen to CNBC tell you that a 20% drop in less then a month isn't a crash and the US market isn't in a recession. Invest for the long term horizon, you may lose 20-100% of your account now, but just remember, is for the long haul,,,,because we all know the future will be better than it is now,,,,,,RIGHT?

Futures go Limit OFFER


Have you ever seen this before?

SPH8, ESH8 went limit offer at 01:01 Chicago time and trading in the corresponding options have been halted.
ER2H8 went limit offer at 01:15 Chicago time and trading in the corresponding options have been halted
YM support at -650......

Keep calling me an idiot, but if your long and still calling me an idiot, then you've got issues of your own.

What to do at the open of a stock market crash?

DO you wait it out? Cut your losses like me? Or average in?

Lesson be don't want to make the same mistakes I did.

I got out of my long futures position when YM was down 300pts, it is now down 650pts and still going down and the market hasn't even opened for US investors!!

I may look stupid for holding my position so long, but I look less stupid now, with the trade down 2x as much from where I sold it.

What do you do today?

Do you short Solars and Financials?

How about shorting NYX and the brokers? Who's going to be left holding all these worthless stock certificates when the market tanks? JPM, GS, BAC, MS, C, LEH, NDAQ.

Remember BAC earnings tomorrow at the bell.....And never count out the surprise FED cut!

Spreads are going to be huge, and I predict YM to have 10-30pts swings every few seconds. The market is going down.


Monday, January 21, 2008

Stock Market Crash of 2008 January 22 2008

To those of you who don't know what futures are, they are basically contracts that trade in direct correlation with an underlying index, like the dow jones 30 index is composed of 30 big cap stocks, and YM is the futures contract that tracks that index. Each pt on the YM futures mini contract is worth $5. So if the market tanks 600pts as we have right now, you make $3,000 with as little as $1,000 in margin. The Stock futures trade around the clock even when the NYSE is closed to take in account overnight news and global market action.

Thanks to all the people that commented. I think I'm going to record tomorrows trading action, this will be an even to remember.

As I type right now, the Hang Seng is down over 8%.

-31k, Goodbye

Good Bye.........I hope you all have a nice life. I need to be to work in 2 hours, and I can't manage this position, I have to sell out. About 40k in 2 days,,,,,,,,,,,,gone. Speechless. One bad trade, is all it takes. 2 and a half years of trading thrown down the drain on 1 trade. Who would've thought the Futures would tank as much as -500pts on YM with the US markets closed. I didn't, and I never really wanted to be in this position, but I couldn't accept the small loss.

Go ahead and link me and show the world how much of an idiot I am. Leave the comments of how stupid a trade I put on.

Now is probably a good time to go long now that I sold out.

YM down over 500pts

Congratulations to all those smart people out there that stayed out of the market, and didn't make a stupid trade like me. You all are better than me. It's 5am, I haven't gone to bed still. Worst trade in my life, obviously. I'm still holding this piece of shit even after taking 38k unrealized loss. If the market does tank on Tuesday as many believe, than I will surely go into a deep state of depression. I'll make one last prediction, that the FED will step in on Tuesday ahead of BAC earnings and save the market from plunging. It's wishful thinking. At this point all I have left is hope and dreams of the PPT stepping in to save the day.

PS.- Bernanke, if your reading this, please fly in with your helicopter and save my ass.

Dow futures down -399

speechless, the world stock market exchanges are plunging.

The stock market ruined my life


Stock Futures Trader losses it all and flips out - Watch more NSFW

For those that didn't see the video when it originally aired January 22, 2008, I lost over 30k holding a trade over the weekend being long the stock Futures indices. I was overleveraged, but I never thought the market would go limit offer(Dow Futures down 650pts) with the US markets closed on Monday in observation of Martin Luther King day. I sold my long before the market opened due to a potential margin call that would have liquidated everything. On Tuesday, the Fed did a surprise interest rate cut, and the market popped 500pts. Here is one of the posts from January.
The Dow dropped close to 1000pts in 3 trading days.

For the record I went long 10 ER2 contracts into the close on Friday. With the intention of holding until market open on Tuesday.........Bad Choice,,,,Clearly....

BAC Earnings

If BAC earnings have a bad reaction, this market is going straight to hell....





dow futures just dropped to -300 then popped up 100 pts to -200, down over 30k a few seconds ago............

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Stock Market D-DAY


I'm Fucked.......


I hope people get some enjoyment out of this, because I think I've lost about 3lbs this week due to trading related stress. It's Sunday night, the Asian markets are tumbling to the depths of hell, and I'm sitting on the biggest losing bet ever. If something bad,,,,,worse,,,, happens between now and Tuesday, you can kiss this blog good bye, because I will be fucking bankrupt.

ER2 is holding upper better then the other indices, and I think a lot more people have pilled in short on ER2 because it was the favorite short last year.

The worst that can happen is a gap down of 200-300pts and a hard selloff at which point my account will be liquidated. Hopefully I won't owe my broker any money.

I could sell now,,,,,,,but what's the point,,,,,????
Who wants to take a 7k loss when you can lose it all instead,,,,,I mean make it all back.

Market Crash

I made a post last September titled "market crash by year end", with the prediction the market would drop to 12,000 on the dow. Looks like I was wrong,,,,,

by a few weeks........

Friday, January 18, 2008


Well, I really don't want to talk about today. I thought I was using my stops wisely, but after looking at my P/L, it isn't pretty. I have on a large bet that I'm holding over the weekend. I'm speculating/gambling, call it what you want.
IF things turnout in my favor next week, I'll tell what happened today.
If things turnout for the worst, I will likely go into a raging fit, become depressed, write a post about the death of my account, stop trading, and begin to hate my life.

My goals for tonight are not to review my charts or my screw-ups, because I already know what I did wrong.(I pretty much just starred at my P/L for an hour and was thinking about all the stuff that could happen between now and when the market opens on Tuesday.)

My goal for tonight is to get DRUNK.
Avoid getting a DUI.
Have fun.
And forget about this bad day.

Have a great Weekend.

This is the Classic Club song,
and goes well with my Trading position (DONT STOP BELIEVEN,,,by Journey)

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Futures are crawling up

Tomorrow is going to be crazy. The index futures have been crawling up all night, with YM up over 90pts right now. What a load of crap. All we got to have now is a surprise interest rate cut 30min before the open like the move we had last August.

Bush, Congress discuss $150 billion lift to economy

Bush, Congress discuss $150 billion lift to economy

By Donna Smith and Caren Bohan Thu Jan 17, 8:54 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush told lawmakers on Thursday he wants tax rebates for families and breaks for businesses in a rescue plan for the struggling U.S. economy that could total up to $150 billion.

Jan 17 $2k+ on 220c and 12,000shares


I hit a good profit for the day and now I'm done and staying out of the chop.

P/L= $2013.64 on 220c and 12,000shares

I missed the morning move down believe it or not, because I thought that the move was too risky with Bernanke speaking, and that I would likely get chopped up. I made the bulk of my profit on ER2 on a long scalp in the afternoon and a short reversal on YM.

I'm going to lunch now.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Trader of the Week- Zero Beta

Zero Beta has some good articles and is Trader of the week.

Props go out to Simon SuperTrader for his article on the Bottom line in Investing.

and MWF for finding this article-
Praise is one of the most addictive--and potentially destructive--drugs around.

Best Day Ever $10,000+


Yesterday I gambled on my AAPL trade. I have a very hard time with the placement of stops on stocks. Today, I came back determined to follow my system and to make back my money after yesterdays embarrassment.

I got a personal best Profit today after the first 3 hours of trade, my first 5 digit profit day. I could have kept trading but euphoria set in and I had difficulty concentrating and I need to leave for work in less than an hour, so there's no need to pressure the trade. I pretty much watched my signals and for buying in SMH to confirm my trade, along with NYSE A/D breakouts.

P/L= $10,124 on 224c

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Worst Stock loss ever


Today I was a dumbass and took a gamble on AAPL. I had no set stop and ended up with about a $9,800 loss by buying the top and selling the bottom on AAPL. Perhaps I should stick to trading futures instead, because I always seem to rack up huge losses on my stock trades. I'm now negative for the month by over 2k, so now my goal is to get to positive for the month. The index futures are down in the After Hours because of INTC earnings reports. It looks like its time for Jim Cramer to start screaming "WE HAVE ARMEGEDDON!"

I hope the Dow Jones Index tanks 5,000 points tomorrow so I can feel like less of a loser.

Trading Blow UP label added,,,CHECK!


I'm long AAPL going into MacWorld at 12pm EST. Currently the position has tanked on me.
My avg. price is 176.6, and the price is $2 below that right now, so I need a miracle for this crappy trade.

Futures gap Down


Looks like the markets going to open with a large gap down, possibly from the citigroup news- Citi gets $12.5B infusion, posts loss

or maybe the markets down because of recent UFO sightings?

I think the market is going to be real choppy today. Keep a close eye on C and financials for market direction today. Also remember we got OPEX this friday, so be prepared for a surprise pop to the upside sometime this week.

The Rajin Cajin has a list of short ETF's. The Nikkei index is continuing to get a beating and is probably the worst index globally right now, making a short trade on EWJ a potential trade candidate.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Same mistakes just a different day


I was up $900, then I lost it by holding a loser long on NQ because I saw NYSE A/d was still strong. I was long NQ and got half of my position stopped out at the LOD around 9:30am right when I left for work. I came back from work after the market closed and closed my long position in NQ to put me at just under breakeven for the day. Overall I made a stupid mistake by not reversing my position in NQ while I was still at the computer. I need to work on my trading plan because I can do much better than how I've been performing lately.

P/L= $-14 on 196c and 2200s

Problems I'm having-
1. Letting profits go red by not using proper stop placement.
2. My trading system is alerting me to reverse but I'm not hearing the audible alerts.
3. I need to identify good stocks like POT early in the morning, possibly invest into a real time stock scanner.
4. I'm forcing trades right before I leave for work that are negative and trying to get them back to break even in a short amount of time.

1.Don't move the stop.(I'm not, I'm getting chopped up in adding to losers on false weak reversals).
(in this case I have decided only to add to a trade when it is breaking out in my direction to a new relative high and I'm positive on the trade already, or I will add on pullbacks,,,I rarely add to trades on pullbacks because I'm out of the trade at the peak before the stock pulls back and in this case I will be re-entering a long.)
2.Make audible alerts this week for reversal signals
3,Maybe try TradeIdeas software to find good trades.
4.Don't trade size when you have an appt or work to be at, as this may add pressure to your trades.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Battle to the End


Today I traded to the close grinding my teeth to the very end.
I was up about $900 before the market rolled over at 3pm Est. I should have payed more attention to the drop in WM and the pop in bond futures. I was trying to keep size down to get to 1k, but I screwed up by getting chopped up during the mid-day. Some how I ended up short on ER2 with large size near the LOD with a 3k loss from doing some massive churning on ER2 in about an hours time. I knew I was going to be screwed if the market didn't continue it's trend down after 3:20pm EST because my short adds on ER2 kept reversing as soon as they were hit. I didn't hesitate to reverse my short ER2 position to long even though the market looked like it was going to tank into the close. I had to widen my stops and sit through some heat to make back my loss. I got another short signal right before the close to put myself back in the black for the day. I really need to work on trading smaller size during the mid-day because I'm losing a lot of money getting chopped up. I also need to reduce my trade size. I'm trading way too many contracts during the mid-day and taking unnecessary risk by doing so.

P/L= $608 on 288c and 5,750 shares

Overall, I'm glad the week is over so I can get some rest. I traded too large of size on the stock futures this week and I need to work on that. I saw that a lot of traders have been getting beat down this week (DehTrader, Ainkurn, and Trader Bubs), and I want to make sure I don't have another blow up. I've been using stops on all my trades to make sure I don't come down with "DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS SYNDROME". However I need to work on my trade size during the mid-day like I said before, because that is where a lot of the damage has been occurring due to getting stopped out, reversing, and then repeating that process like 3 times until I've lost all the profits I made in the morning.

Schwarzenegger Declares State Fiscal Emergency

Calif. governor proposes deep cuts

SACRAMENTO, Calif. - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency in California Thursday, and released a state budget proposal that would close an estimated $14 billion gap by cutting education funds, releasing inmates and closing dozens of state parks.

By AARON C. DAVIS, Associated Press Writer

Thursday, January 10, 2008

New feature to the blog

I've added a new spot on the blog located near the top right to highlight Top Traders for Week. These traders will come from a number of different backgrounds, but the key is that they make some good posts worth checking out. This week the Trader of the week is Lonely Trader for his excellent articles.

Jan 10, Bernanke speech Leak


Trade Of The Day-

Today's big event was the supposed leak of Bernanke speech. Luckily I was only short 200 shares of MHS. I did good on my signals I took and made good stock selection.Traded better than yesterday even though I didn't make as much. Leaving early to go the gym before I have to leave for work. This week has been really busy for me, I can't wait for Saturday to roll around to get some sleep.

P/L= $1,532 on 61c and 6100s

Missed Trades- Airline stocks CAL and DAL were on fire today with the bearish Oil news.

BREAKING NEWS- CFC may be bought out, some shorts just got screwed big time. I thought about shorting CFC but, I knew there was potential for a surprise buyout like we had today, so I never risked shorting it. Buying Calls on CFC is the best hedge one could take right now.

WM, BSC, CFC are heavily shorted and have potential to POP.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Ex-PM Tony Blair joins JPMorgan as senior advisor

Ex-PM Tony Blair joins JPMorgan as senior advisor

Traded Terribly but banked some coin


I really need to work on my signals and my audible alerts. I took on too much heat today. Gotta leave early and go to work. Sorry no summary today. Watching the inverse relationship between bond futures and stock indices was key today, especially the ZB/ZN divergence.

Net P/L= $3,016 on 216 and 4400s

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Terrible Day


Didn't trade according to plan and I took some unnecessary losses. I didn't realize CFC was taking such a huge shit until CNBC announced it right near the BOTTOM as they USUALLY do. Absolutely lousy trading. YM chopped me to pieces with 15-40pt reversals that occurred in as little as a minute as you can see from my trade log. My monitors stopped functioning right after I got out of my large trade. Luckily the computer reboots fast enough to where I can get things working again. I was recording todays trading but I lost the footage due to my monitor problem and having to REBOOT.

BAC and CFC look F#CKED.

P/L= $631 on 95c and 300c

This is one of the rare days where I'm actually glad my work called me in for extra work today because I'm not following my plan due to anger from getting chopped up, my monitors screwing up, and feeling under the weather.

Monday, January 07, 2008

Pat Robertson Douche Bag of the week

Pat Robertson Predicts Worldwide Violence, U.S. Recession in 2008
Last year, Robertson predicted that a terrorist act, possibly involving a nuclear weapon, would result in mass killing in the United States. Noting that it hadn't come to pass, Robertson said, "All I can think is that somehow the people of God prayed and God in his mercy spared us."

FOX news is in the running for receiving the Douche Bag Lifetime Achieve Award.

Ron Paul, Evolution, Religion debate


Ron Paul Rejects Evolution- A huge debate in the comments section (I found this site after seeing Tyro Trader post the Vid on his website, and after reading Richard and Mr.WF have a discussion.)

I believe in evolution, there is no denying the evidence. Furthermore, I also believe that there could be a higher power out there that my mind can't conceivably comprehend. I don't practice any religion nor am I against people who do. I guess this fits me in the category of Atheistic agnosticism.

I wrote a paper on Transhumanism a few years ago. Wikipedia sure has added a lot to that subject since then.

ALGORITHMIC INELEGANCE- Complexity in living things is a product of the lack of direction in evolutionary processes, of the accumulation of fortuitous accidents, rather than the product of design.

Good Trading Links

Stewie put together a nice article on The Stages of the developing Trader

Overall- Trade with the correct Leverage for your account size so emotion does not affect your trading plan.

Pinoy Trader is back to posting and kicking butt apparently

Lonely Trader- What to look for in a trading coach

ReelGeezers Review SuperBad

2 Reel Geezers review the movie "SUPERBAD"
I thought it was Funny.

The 80's are coming BACK!

Let me give you some examples-
Bret Michaels- Rock of Love 2 (VH1 loves the 80's)
American Gladiators (just as lame as it was in the past with lots of crotch shots)

Terminator-The Sarah Conmor chronicles (looks like a flop)

Stallone in RAMBO (I don't remember the first 3 movies, The trailer looks good probably because they play drowning pool "let the bodies hit the floor" in the background, In case you forgot the lead singer died back in 2002, from heart complications,,err,,or something)

This 3 legged dog named rambo is probably more interesting than all of those shows combined.

Jan 7 $224 on 1300s and 6c



Todays Trades-



I'm feeling under the weather with a head cold so I'm done for the day.
It looks like Bond futures are hitting resistance and stock futures are hitting support today. I'm expecting a bounce in selected stock sectors and a small pullback in bond futures sometime this week.

Update- Came back an traded the last 15min to double the P/L.

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