Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Vix Bounces from Record lows. Volatility rises with ES (stock Market)

Today we saw both the VIX futures and SP500 futures (ES) rise as the stock market hit new record highs.

SP500 at Record Highs
A spread chart of VIX and ES 1/1 ratio.

Today was the first day VIX H contract trading as the front month. There was a lot of pressure to push up VIX today.

The word in the pit was that there was a large call buyer in VIX betting on a rise to 16 by March.

The front Vix calendar hit a high of 1.94 on Monday and has since been going down, closing at 1.22 today.

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Traders Huge Bet on AAPL- Fake blow up video - Fail

Years ago, I had a blow up video where lost around 30k trading with Interactive Brokers. I was over-leveraged on a trade and it cost me. There are traders that go all in on trades everyday, and many fail. Don't bet your life savings on any trade. Trading isn't easy. The profits are hard to make and the losses can get bigger then you think. I've been trading for 11 years and the first few years I made some bad mistakes which all stems from discipline and having a trade plan. Things can be much easier if you automate your strategy and have the computer get you out.

The Wolf trader made a big bet on AAPL earnings today where he basically bet the stock would go down. He bought a ton of puts and sold even more calls against it to lower the margin so he could do even larger size. He over-leveraged the trade to where he would either make a lot or lose it all. The trade did not have a high probability of working out. Most professional traders would prefer to sell vol going into earnings.

It appears that the Big trade that sparked media attention on Reddit and Youtube was fake because the guy behind it was using a Demo account. You can tell because there is a D in front of the account #'s, which means it is a simulation account with Interactive Brokers. He setup the blowup video in many ways similar to mine, except I used many more F-bombs and lost real money. I took down most of my videos off of the internet that I could find, but I'm sure there are still some out there floating around on the internet.

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